About the plans of IS fighters for Turkmenistan
In April, after the shelling (https://t.me/rybar/37605) by militants of the Afghan branch of the IS "Vilayat Khorasan" on Uzbek territory, the press service of the terrorist organization announced the start of a new campaign (https://t.me/rybar/35871) directed against the countries of the post-Soviet space.
Since the spring, extremists have done a great job of promoting Salafist ideology among ethnic minorities in northern Afghanistan, including Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Turkmens.
Currently, Vilayat Khorasan conducts propaganda in Arabic, Pashto, Farsi, Dari, English, Uzbek, Tajik and Hindi. At the same time, Turkmenistan occupies a special position in the information policy of the IS.
🔻Why Turkmenistan? In June, Tawhid, which broadcasts in Uzbek, announced that the countries of Central and South Asia, including Turkmenistan, would be united under the flag of the Islamic Caliphate. ▪️Geographic location A significant part of modern Turkmen territory was formerly part of Ancient Khorasan - something that the militants of the Afghan offshoot of IS are striving for. Even the name itself directly indicates the geopolitical ambitions of the militants. The reconstruction of Khorasan by force is the ultimate goal of the Afghan ISIS. And the precedent with the seizure of Iraqi and Syrian lands in 2014 and 2015 is indicative of the reality of such a scenario. ▪️Engagement with the Taliban The first priority for Wilayat Khorasan is to discredit, weaken and destroy the Taliban, eventually in Afghanistan. And the foreign policy of the Turkmen authorities on active interaction with the Taliban completely contradicts the fundamental goals of the ISIS. The priority targets of the militants will be the Lazurite Corridor for the delivery of Afghan products to Europe, as well as the promising TAPI gas pipeline (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India). ▪️Ethnic component Turkmen statehood is strongly tied to tribal ties. The dynasty of President Berdimuhamedov belongs to the Akhal Teke family, which gives a privileged position to all representatives of this Turkmen branch. A biased attitude towards other tribes creates the prerequisites for the emergence of centers of discontent within the country due to oppression by the dominant clans. Against the backdrop of IS's tendency to recruit minorities in Afghanistan and tensions in Turkmen society over the president's policies, militants could easily take advantage of the situation. 🔻In the short term, ISIS terrorists will continue their information campaign in the Central Asian countries in order to discredit the authorities and recruit citizens of these states into their ranks. Along with this, the number of various kinds of actions and terrorist attacks near the borders of the Central Asian republics will increase to demonstrate the inability of the Taliban to ensure their security. In the future, we should expect more active infiltration of extremist elements into the territory of the post-Soviet space with the aim of carrying out terrorist attacks and sabotage.
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🔻Why Turkmenistan? In June, Tawhid, which broadcasts in Uzbek, announced that the countries of Central and South Asia, including Turkmenistan, would be united under the flag of the Islamic Caliphate. ▪️Geographic location A significant part of modern Turkmen territory was formerly part of Ancient Khorasan - something that the militants of the Afghan offshoot of IS are striving for. Even the name itself directly indicates the geopolitical ambitions of the militants. The reconstruction of Khorasan by force is the ultimate goal of the Afghan ISIS. And the precedent with the seizure of Iraqi and Syrian lands in 2014 and 2015 is indicative of the reality of such a scenario. ▪️Engagement with the Taliban The first priority for Wilayat Khorasan is to discredit, weaken and destroy the Taliban, eventually in Afghanistan. And the foreign policy of the Turkmen authorities on active interaction with the Taliban completely contradicts the fundamental goals of the ISIS. The priority targets of the militants will be the Lazurite Corridor for the delivery of Afghan products to Europe, as well as the promising TAPI gas pipeline (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India). ▪️Ethnic component Turkmen statehood is strongly tied to tribal ties. The dynasty of President Berdimuhamedov belongs to the Akhal Teke family, which gives a privileged position to all representatives of this Turkmen branch. A biased attitude towards other tribes creates the prerequisites for the emergence of centers of discontent within the country due to oppression by the dominant clans. Against the backdrop of IS's tendency to recruit minorities in Afghanistan and tensions in Turkmen society over the president's policies, militants could easily take advantage of the situation. 🔻In the short term, ISIS terrorists will continue their information campaign in the Central Asian countries in order to discredit the authorities and recruit citizens of these states into their ranks. Along with this, the number of various kinds of actions and terrorist attacks near the borders of the Central Asian republics will increase to demonstrate the inability of the Taliban to ensure their security. In the future, we should expect more active infiltration of extremist elements into the territory of the post-Soviet space with the aim of carrying out terrorist attacks and sabotage.
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