The state of the energy system of southern Ukraine after Russian strikes: analysis of Rybar

The state of the energy system of southern Ukraine after Russian strikes: analysis of Rybar During a recent speech, Zelensky said that the situation with electricity in the Odessa region is one of the most difficult in the country. To solve the problem, the Kyiv authorities are even considering fantastic options (https://t.me/rybar/41601) for using Turkish floating power plants. In the light of such statements, it is possible to determine, by indirect signs, which specific objects of the Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the Odessa region were disabled during massive missile strikes. ▪️ With a very high probability, during the raids, the Adzhalyk 330 substation was disabled northeast of Odessa. This does not allow transferring power to the city with the Yuzhnoukraniska nuclear power plant in the Mykolaiv region. The bypass line through the outdoor switchgear of the Ladyzhinskaya TPP was also disabled, presumably at the Pobuzhskaya 330 substation. ▪️The attacks on the facilities (https://t.me/rybar/41241) of the Ladyzhynska TPP in the Vinnytsia region also significantly reduced the possibility of transferring energy to the southern regions of the country. Now the entire Odessa region is powered by transit through the Moldavskaya GRES, the capacity of which is critically insufficient to power the region. ▪️Theoretically, damage to the open switchgear (OSG) of the South Ukrainian NPP is possible. However, the likelihood of this is extremely small: in the event of such an attack, Ukrainian resources would publish tons of materials from the place of arrival to accuse Russia of “nuclear terrorism”, but they did not appear on the network. It can also be assumed that the targets of the last massive strike of the RF Armed Forces were no longer transformers, but plant-wide control points (OCPs). This partly explains why major problems with electricity supply began simultaneously throughout the country. The cumulative effect of past raids has made itself felt, and the unified energy system of Ukraine is disintegrating into separate islands that are not connected to each other.

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