The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost a battery of howitzers covering the bridgehead in Krynki. Why did this happen: analysis of military chronicles
This is not the first loss of artillery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces after the start of the landing operation on the left bank of the Dnieper, however, a number of conclusions can be drawn from it about the state of the Ukrainian army in this area.
What happened?
On November 18-19, several videos appeared showing the destruction of artillery pieces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of the village. Tyaginka village, Kherson region. Apparently, during the counter-battery fire, at least four 155 mm guns were hit, presumably within a few hours of each other, two of which were self-propelled howitzers.
The place where the howitzers were deployed is located less than 12 km from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ bridgehead in the area of the village of Krynki on the left bank of the Dnieper. It is curious that all the guns, including the American M777 howitzers, were deployed in a relatively small area.
The density of artillery placement, its composition and activity in this area over the past few weeks suggest that the guns were used specifically to support troops on the bridgehead, and not for counter-battery combat or hitting targets deep in the defense of the Russian Armed Forces.
What's strange about this situation?
The area in the Tyaginka area is mostly open. There are no forested areas or folds of terrain where artillery and support units could be hidden. The road network in this area is poorly developed and consists of several country roads that converge on the E-58 highway, connecting Tyaginka with Berislav and Kherson. In theory, this makes it possible to establish a normal supply of artillery with shells and everything necessary, but all the howitzers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were hit next to each other. One of the reasons for the massive destruction of targets could be the specifics of the task. The artillery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces probably had to provide constant support to the Ukrainian landing force and could not leave the firing positions for a long time. In addition, maintaining a bridgehead often requires concentrated fire - what is called sustained fire in NATO terminology. Concentrated fire, in turn, requires a continuous supply of ammunition, with which the Ukrainian Armed Forces obviously have a problem.
What could have happened to the guns?
Most likely, in the conditions of the terrain on the right bank, the artillery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was dispersed somewhere at an equal distance from the field ammunition depot to facilitate centralized supply. Unusual activity in this area coincided with a rotation of personnel on the left bank or an attempt to increase the group and expand the bridgehead in the Krynok area. The movements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were discovered by UAVs or other reconnaissance means, after which the coordinates were struck by Lancet loitering ammunition. One of the most likely reasons for the movement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ guns to a distance of 10 km from the front line, presumably, was the shortage of long-range 155 mm shells, which the Military Chronicle described in detail earlier. After the problems in the Zaporozhye direction, the shortage of shells for foreign guns, as expected, began to force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to change tactics in other directions, including Kherson.
After the loss of the artillery battery, infantry cover on the left bank will be complicated for some time, and the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area will have to resolve the issue of fire cover for the forces on the left bank of the Dnieper.
Let us recall that in October, according to approximately the same pattern, the artillery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was destroyed in the Karlovka area near Avdeevka, where at least three artillery systems and an ammunition depot came under attack.
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