The victory of the opposition coalition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu remains extremely unlikely

🇹🇷 (https://qr.nspk.ru/BS1A0068ID10D33B9IBAQRQ4M9T0NIFN?type=01&bank=100000000008&crc=36CB) Intermediate vote count results for the general elections in Turkey as of 11.30, May 15.

The CEC of Turkey published the preliminary results of the presidential elections after processing 99% of the ballots. Incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan receives 49.4%, while the unified opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu scored 44.96%. Now we can say with almost complete certainty that there will be a second round.

In addition, Erdogan's bloc managed to maintain a majority in the Turkish Grand National Assembly, receiving a total of 321 mandates. Opposition parliamentary associations get 279 seats.

📌Despite the tense atmosphere in recent days, the main intrigue remained around the possibility of the opposition to achieve a second round. The victory of the opposition coalition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu remains extremely unlikely. On the side of Erdogan is both the administrative resource and the power apparatus subordinate to him over the years of power.

But even if we proceed from purely electoral mathematics, it is unlikely that the votes cast for the nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan, who advocates friendship with Russia, will go to the conditional liberal Kilychdaroglu. It is all the more unlikely that Ogan's entire electorate, which has accumulated almost 2.8 million people, or 5.2%, will vote for him.

🔻 Yes, the second round is more beneficial for Erdogan - given the tension in society, the lightning victory of the current candidate would look strange and could raise questions about the legitimacy of the elections. Not to mention the protests, which, however, will certainly begin after the second round. But even the most convinced skeptics have much less doubt that he will take the lead in the next round of voting.

#Turkey

@rybar

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