A US Navy strike group headed by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson steamed towards the western Pacific on Sunday for what is expected to be another American show of force off the Korean peninsula.
The US Pacific Command ordered the group – which includes several missile destroyers and cruisers – to sail north from Singapore on Saturday, according to the US Navy.
The orders come as observers warn of a growing risk of accidental conflict on the peninsula. While the US and North Korea would avoid unilateral action, rising tensions in the region mean either one might, in haste, misread moves by the other.
“Neither the US nor North Korea would take the initiative to wage a war, but the risk of conflict is higher as a small miscalculation or accident could bring war to the peninsula,” said Zhang Tuosheng, from the China Foundation for International and Strategic Studies.
Beijing-based military analyst Li Jie agreed. “The [presence of] the US strike group [near the Korean peninsula] will surely raise the possibility of miscalculation, which is already very high. It could go even higher if [US President] Donald Trump or [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un takes a stronger stand against the other.”
The US has close to 30,000 troops stationed in South Korea, and US warships routinely make shows of force near the peninsula.
Why it may be time for the US to clip North Korea’s wings
The strike group’s deployment comes just days after Trump told President Xi Jinping in their first face-to-face meeting that the US was prepared to act alone on North Korea.
In addition, as the two presidents dined in Florida on Thursday, the US mounted a surprise air strike against Syria, a move analysts said was also a warning targeted at Pyongyang.
In a phone call on Saturday, Trump and acting South Korean President Hwang Kyo-ahn agreed to stay in close contact about North Korea and other issues, according to Washington.
North and South Korea are still technically at war, having never signed a peace treaty since the cessation of the Korean war.
The US and South Korea have expanded their joint naval drills in the region and rebadged the annual exercises from “defensive” to “pre-emptive”. In response, Pyongyang has hastened development of its nuclear and military weapons. All those moves were open to misinterpretation and greatly raised the stakes for conflict,analysts said.
Seeking to ease tensions, China proposes trade-off between US and North Korea
“The scale of the US and South Korean joint military drills is becoming bigger, and pre-emptive exercises send a clear warning to Kim that the US can destroy North Korea if it wants,” Zhang said. “The enhanced military strike ability and the increasingly provocative words from the Kim regime make the US uneasy. Washington is facing immense pressure to strike Pyongyang before it can [develop the capacity] to launch missiles at the US.”
Hwang Jae-ho, from Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, said accurate knowledge of Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal was critical to any move by Washington against North Korea.
“If a lack of accurate information means the US cannot swiftly and safely disable North Korea’s nuclear attack capability, Pyongyang could quickly retaliate by launching nuclear-armed missiles at South Korea, Japan or even the US,” Hwang said.
Observers said China was monitoring the situation closely. “A war on the Korea peninsula would no doubt bring tremendous harm to China, and China needs to prepare militarily to protect itself,” said Cui Zhiying, from Tongji University.Α
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