This Week in Petroleum

This Week in Petroleum
Release Date: October 14, 2021 
Heating fuel expenditures expected to increase from last year

In our October Short-Term Energy Outlook: Winter Fuels Outlook, we expect that higher energy prices and a slightly colder winter compared with last year will contribute to households across the United States spending more on energy this winter (October–March) compared with the past several winters. On October 13, 2021, the Brent crude oil price (the most relevant crude oil price in determining U.S. petroleum product prices) was $83 per barrel (b), a 57% increase from last winter’s average, which contributes to the higher expected propane and heating oil retail prices. Wholesale prices of crude oil have risen because petroleum demand has increased faster than supply, leading to falling inventories (in the case of crude oil and several petroleum products) and propane inventories that have increased at slower rates than historical averages. We expect the retail price of propane in the United States will average $3.10 per gallon (gal) this winter (49% higher than last winter) and the price of heating oil will average $3.39/gal this winter (33% higher than last winter).

OIL PRICES

Chart of the Week



- China is set for a tumultuous winter as a nationwide power crunch is eating into Chinese demand for commodities, compelling analysts to revisit their forecasts for its 2021 economic performance.

- Two-thirds of the nationwide total, 19 provinces have introduced power rationing over September, mandating industry participants in refining and other segments to decrease production.

- The ongoing global gas shortage, having already pushed spot Asian LNG prices to some 35 per mmBtu, and simultaneously surging coal prices, have been the prime suspects behind this, although the Communist Party’s ban on electricity generators to increase bills for consumers also played a large part.

- Chinese authorities seem to be open to relaxing safety rules in the country’s manifold coal mines so as to alleviate the energy crunch before the official winter heating season starts 15 November.

Ιράκ απειλεί το deal των 53 δισ. με το Ιράκ

Το colpo grosso της ExxonMobil στο Ιράκ απειλεί το deal των 53 δισ. με το Ιράκ
Από Intelligence Dpt

Σε εμπλοκή έχει οδηγηθεί η συμφωνία ExxonMobil και PetroChina με το Ιράν που αποτιμάται στα 53 δισ,, καθώς η κοινοπραξία της οποίας ηγείται η αμερικανική εταιρία διεκδικεί, για πρώτη φορά στην ιστορία τέτοιων συμβάσεων, το ήμισυ της παραγωγής, ενώ παράλληλα οι εντάσεις στις σχέσεις ΗΠΑ-Ιράν αυξάνουν το ρίσκο στην περιοχή και υπονομεύουν την εμπέδωση του εκδηλωμένου επενδυτικού ενδιαφέροντος.

Σύμφωνα με το Reuters η πρόταση της ExxonMobil δεν βρίσκει πρόσφορο έδαφος στην ιρακινή κυβέρνηση, η οποία αντιτείνει συμφωνία επί πάγιου αντιτίμου ανά βαρέλι που εξορύσσεται, καθώς η παραγωγή ανήκει παραδοσιακά στη χώρα. Η πρόταση της αμερικανικής εταιρίας θα καθιστούσε έναν πετρελαϊκό όμιλο παραγωγό πετρελαίου, δημιουργώντας δυναμική αναδιάταξης δυνάμεων και αλλάζοντας το πλαίσιο εκμετάλλευσης των ορυκτών καυσίμων, γεγονός που οδηγεί σε περιορισμό της ισχύος των κρατών, εισάγοντας τις εταιρίες ως νέο παράγοντα στην εξίσωση της παραγωγής πετρελαίου, ενώ μέχρι τώρα ο ρόλος τους περιορίζονταν στη λειτουργία και πώληση.

Massive explosion at Philadelphia refinery

Massive explosion at Philadelphia refinery

Firefighters are battling a massive fire at Philadelphia Energy Solutions’ refinery in Philadelphia that has resulted in several explosions but caused no significant injuries, the company said on Friday.

The fire began early Friday morning in a butane vat at the 335,000 barrel-per-day refinery, according to the Philadelphia Fire Department’s twitter feed and a company statement. Video footage shows a later explosion that sent a massive fireball into the sky, engulfing the refinery and the surrounding area in smoke.

Aerial video of the scene aired on local television showed the complex engulfed in flames and significant damage.

the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.

London.

In today’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.

We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.

The Oil Price Is Now Controlled By Just Three Men

The Oil Price Is Now Controlled By Just Three Men

Bin Salman, Trump and Putin are calling the market shots. The prince may struggle to defend output cuts against a hostile Trump and indifferent Putin.By
Julian Lee
The U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia now produce more oil than OPEC combined. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

Julian Lee is an oil strategist for Bloomberg First Word. Previously he worked as a senior analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies.

OPEC has lost what control of the oil market it ever had. The actions (or tweets) of three men — Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman — will determine the course of oil prices in 2019 and beyond. But of course they each want different things.

Η περιπτωση του Πορθητη

Χατζηαναγνωστου Γιωργος

Το ενδιαφέρον στην περίπτωση του Πορθητής σε αυτή την φάση δεν εστιάζεται στο πιθανό παραγόμενο αποτέλεσμα αλλά στην κοστοβορα και τεχνικά υψηλής ανάγκης εξοπλισμού και στελεχών για να παραχθεί το όποιο αποτέλεσμα .
Έτσι όλα όσα συμβαίνουν είναι σε αρχικό στάδιο και χωρίς "'σοβαρο" παραγόμενο αποτέλεσμα .
Ας σημειωθεί οτι μια πιθανή επιτυχής εύρεση κοιτασμάτων αφού περάσει όλα τους κίνδυνους έκρηξης από αστοχία κλπ στο τελικό τους στάδιο ενέχουν και τον κίνδυνο μετατόπισης κοιτασμάτων από κοίτασμα σε κοίτασμα.

U.S BELIEVES RUSSIA MAY BE RESELLING IRAN’S OIL TO BYPASS SANCTIONS

U.S BELIEVES RUSSIA MAY BE RESELLING IRAN’S OIL TO BYPASS SANCTIONS
By Paul Antonopoulos On Oct 24, 2018A gas flare on an oil production platform in the Soroush oil fields is seen alongside an Iranian flag in the Persian Gulf, Iran, July 25, 2005. REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi/File Photo - RTSS235

The White House fears that Russia could help Tehran bypass sanctions by selling Iranian oil, the Financial Times writes, quoting a source in the administration of Donald Trump.

“Iran might be pushing the idea of Russia selling their oil on the world market to evade sanctions,” a senior administration official said. “I would discourage Russia from even considering this. It would be in Russia’s best interests not to facilitate Iranian evasion of US sanctions.”

ADNOC's early restart of Ruwais refinery unit may add to Asia gasoline glut

ADNOC's early restart of Ruwais refinery unit may add to Asia gasoline glut

Reuters News- SINGAPORE- The earlier-than-expected return of a gasoline-making unit at Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (ADNOC) Ruwais oil refinery may add to a glut of the fuel in Asia, potentially weighing on prices, while fuel oil supplies could drop.

ADNOC shut the 127,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) residue fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC) in the western section of the 800,000-bpd Ruwais plant in January 2017 after a fire at a linked petrochemical unit. The RFCC mainly processed straight-run fuel oil (SRFO) from the refinery's crude distillation units into higher-value gasoline and diesel fuel.

New crude oil trend is range trading, but with positive carry

Commodities
New crude oil trend is range trading, but with positive carry
Bloomberg Intelligence September 04, 2018

This analysis is by Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.

Access the full Bloomberg Commodity Outlook – September 2018 Edition

Petroleum prices and indexes are likely transitioning to positive roll yields from strong spot returns. Prices have returned to the mean from the financial-crisis trough to peak, with primary bull-market companions historically extended. Levels of backwardation, demand vs. supply and stocks-to-use aren’t supportive of sustained higher prices. Momentum remains up though, and the new dynamic for investors is positive carry for the first time on an annual basis since 2014. A geopolitical event is likely necessary for WTI to reach $80 a barrel.

Why Oil Prices Are Trending Upwards

Why Oil Prices Are Trending Upwards


While oil prices fell slightly on Friday, they are still set to see a second week of gains as supply disruptions around the globe make the oil market look increasingly tight.

Brent is nearing the $80 mark

Brent is nearing the $80 mark as fears of outages and a significant draw in U.S. oil inventories sparked bullish sentiment that has seen oil prices rise throughout the week

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Here’s How Cruising Crude Can Top the Market Chop

Here’s How Cruising Crude Can Top the Market Chop
Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...
After chopping around all morning, Turnaround Tuesday took hold and the major averages firmed up following a painful start to the trading week. The Dow eked out a small gain, while the Nasdaq Composite rose nearly 0.4%.

Most of the market’s clobbered momentum darlings clawed back a portion of their Monday losses. Fearless FANG-leader Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) led the charge, gaining almost 4% by the closing bell despite experiencing some late-day weakness.

OIL PRICES

Ιn today’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.

We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.

Bullish Sentiment Drives An Oil Price Rebound

Bullish Sentiment Drives An Oil Price Rebound



Greetings from London.

Oil prices fell on Friday morning following a string of bearish news, but the market soon rebounded and prices look set to continue their upward trend.

Oil Prices Rise Over Middle East Tensions

Oil Prices Rise Over Middle East Tensions

Oil prices jumped upwards on Friday morning as Trump confirmed his plan to decertify the Iranian nuclear deal while both Iraqi and Kurdish soldiers mobilized near the Kirkuk oil region. These higher oil prices were further supported by bullish noises from both OPEC and the U.S. shale community.

Are The Bulls Returning To The Oil Market?

In the last several weeks, we’ve enjoyed a turnaround in oil stocks, accelerated by the two major storms in Texas and Florida.

And with a bit of a smile, we’ve seen more and more analysts convinced of the renaissance in oil prices that I advised you was coming months ago.

In my last column I pointed out Ed Morse of Citibank and Evan Calio of Morgan Stanley changing their bearish tune.

This week, we’ve seen a positive note on oil from Goldman Sachs, who only two weeks ago thought that the Harvey and Irma storms were going to kill demand and therefore be bearish for oil instead.
Goldman have been joined by the head commodity analyst for S+P/Dow Jones – who sees $80 oil on the horizon. Private trading house Trafigura also joined in abandoningthe “lower for longer” idea for the current oil markets.

Σαρώνει την αγορά το λαθρεμπόριο και η νοθεία καυσίμων

Σαρώνει την αγορά το λαθρεμπόριο και η νοθεία καυσίμων

Έκκληση στην πολιτεία να λειτουργήσει το σύστημα εισροών – εκροών στην αγορά καυσίμων προκειμένου να παταχθούν τα ανεξέλεγκτα κυκλώματα λαθρεμπορίας και νοθείας απευθύνουν οι εταιρείες πετρελαιοειδών.
Το σύστημα έχει τοποθετηθεί σε όλες τις εγκαταστάσεις των πετρελαϊκών εταιρειών (διυλιστήρια, πρατήρια , αποθήκες) από το 2012. ...Ωστόσο, εξακολουθεί να μην λειτουργεί καθώς δεν έχει διασυνδεθεί με τα υπολογιστικά συστήματα του υπουργείου Οικονομικών για να μπορεί να διασταυρώνει στοιχεία.

Oil prices bounced off ten-month lows

Greetings from London,

In today's newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.

We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.

All Eyes On OPEC As Oil Prices Sink

All Eyes On OPEC As Oil Prices Sink

Greetings from London.

Oil prices have been falling throughout the week, hitting a 10-month low on Wednesday, but Friday trading has seen a slight recovery.

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