Somalia: The Fight Against Jihadists Takes Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
(Stratfor)
Despite the best efforts of Somalia's neighbors, stability in the country is still hovering out of reach. On Sept. 29, the hard-line Islamist militia al Shabaab took control of Barire, a village located about 50 kilometers (31 miles) outside Mogadishu. The assault reportedly involved the use of a car bomb and killed at least 17 Somali soldiers. The Somali National Armed Forces (SNAF) and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) had retaken Barire from al Shabaab just last month; their failure to hold the village highlights the challenges Somalia has faced and will face in attempting to counter the jihadist group and defend Somali territory.
The seizure by al Shabaab occurred just one day after AMISOM troops withdrew from Barire, granting control to SNAF troops. AMISOM has now been in Somalia for more than a decade. It has been preparing and debating a potential withdrawal, set to take place as early as next year. The bulk of the international force is from Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Burundi — all of which are debating whether they will continue participating in the peacekeeping mission. Previous announcements of intent to leave Somalia were designed to ensure increased funding from Western backers, such as the European Union.
More recent claims may be different, however. Regardless of when it ends, the mission will not last forever and troops will, eventually, pull out. This week, Kenya announced it would withdraw troops from the area of Jubbaland. Kenya's main strategic aim is not necessarily to stabilize Somalia's central government. Rather, Kenya seeks to establish a buffer zone to protect itself from potential attacks by al Shabaab in Kenyan territory. Ethiopia, likewise, has similar goals.
Despite its issues, AMISOM has been instrumental in securing key cities and towns in Somalia's hinterlands. The peacekeeping mission has had some success in curtailing operations from al Shabaab, even if it has never been able to fully dislodge the group from rural areas where al Shabaab continues to be successful in its messaging, recruitment and ability to provide basic services. Al Shabaab's hold in rural areas means that, once AMISOM pulls out, the jihadists are likely to see a resurgence unless SNAF troops are able to defend the more remote towns without assistance. Although SNAF troops are being trained by Western, Turkish and Emirati military advisers, SNAF capabilities pale in comparison to those of the AMISOM forces. The failure, and quick reversal of fortunes, only serve to underline the challenges that Somalia and its armed forces will face one they are left to their own devices.
www.fotavgeia.blogspot.com
(Stratfor)
Despite the best efforts of Somalia's neighbors, stability in the country is still hovering out of reach. On Sept. 29, the hard-line Islamist militia al Shabaab took control of Barire, a village located about 50 kilometers (31 miles) outside Mogadishu. The assault reportedly involved the use of a car bomb and killed at least 17 Somali soldiers. The Somali National Armed Forces (SNAF) and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) had retaken Barire from al Shabaab just last month; their failure to hold the village highlights the challenges Somalia has faced and will face in attempting to counter the jihadist group and defend Somali territory.
The seizure by al Shabaab occurred just one day after AMISOM troops withdrew from Barire, granting control to SNAF troops. AMISOM has now been in Somalia for more than a decade. It has been preparing and debating a potential withdrawal, set to take place as early as next year. The bulk of the international force is from Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Burundi — all of which are debating whether they will continue participating in the peacekeeping mission. Previous announcements of intent to leave Somalia were designed to ensure increased funding from Western backers, such as the European Union.
More recent claims may be different, however. Regardless of when it ends, the mission will not last forever and troops will, eventually, pull out. This week, Kenya announced it would withdraw troops from the area of Jubbaland. Kenya's main strategic aim is not necessarily to stabilize Somalia's central government. Rather, Kenya seeks to establish a buffer zone to protect itself from potential attacks by al Shabaab in Kenyan territory. Ethiopia, likewise, has similar goals.
Despite its issues, AMISOM has been instrumental in securing key cities and towns in Somalia's hinterlands. The peacekeeping mission has had some success in curtailing operations from al Shabaab, even if it has never been able to fully dislodge the group from rural areas where al Shabaab continues to be successful in its messaging, recruitment and ability to provide basic services. Al Shabaab's hold in rural areas means that, once AMISOM pulls out, the jihadists are likely to see a resurgence unless SNAF troops are able to defend the more remote towns without assistance. Although SNAF troops are being trained by Western, Turkish and Emirati military advisers, SNAF capabilities pale in comparison to those of the AMISOM forces. The failure, and quick reversal of fortunes, only serve to underline the challenges that Somalia and its armed forces will face one they are left to their own devices.
www.fotavgeia.blogspot.com
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