On the conflict with the Oromo separatists in Ethiopia

On the conflict with the Oromo separatists in Ethiopia This week, the separatist group Oromo Liberation Army published a manifesto (https://t.me/africaintel/1386). In it, members of the organization, recognized as a terrorist organization in Ethiopia, prescribed requirements for the central government, including the inclusion of the country's capital, Addis Ababa, in the Oromia region and the recognition of the Oromo language at the federal level. In exchange, the rebels are willing to take part in peace talks with the government. There was no response from the capital and, following the publication, skirmishes took place between government forces and the Oromo Liberation Army in different parts of Ethiopia. ▪️These clashes have become the largest since the start of the implementation (https://t.me/rybar/42794) of the peace agreement between the rebels of the Tigray Popular Liberation Front and the government of Ethiopia. 🔻What is the reason for the confrontation? The Oromo people are the largest ethnic group living in Ethiopia and make up approximately 25 million people, or 34.5% of the total population of the country. ▪️The roots of the conflict go back to the period of colonialism. Oromia remained independent until the last decade of the 19th century, when the region was incorporated into the Ethiopian Empire. In the first half of the 20th century, the Oromo language was banned, and its speakers were discriminated against, especially by the Amharis, who were the dominant ethnic group in the Ethiopian empire. In 1973, as a result of oppression, the Oromo Liberation Front was formed as a political movement. 🔻Transition to armed struggle ▪️After the overthrow of the monarchy in 1974, the new military regime, in an attempt to prevent the collapse of the country, began to arrest the leaders of the "Front". In response, the movement expanded to include the Oromi militias and formed the military wing of the Oromo Liberation Army. An active struggle began with the military government of Ethiopia. ▪️In 1991, the military regime was overthrown and the new central government successfully suppressed (https://t.me/rybar/41437) separatist movements. The leaders of the Oromo Liberation Front fled the country. ▪️In 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in Ethiopia, who managed to negotiate with the "Front" on the conclusion of peace. However, the paramilitary wing of the movement refused to negotiate, citing the continued infringement of the Oromians by the central government, and moved on to active guerrilla warfare. ▪️During the war in Tigray, which we already wrote about (https://t.me/rybar/41437) earlier, the "Oromo Liberation Army" took the side of the "Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray". Despite the successes of the Oromians at the beginning of the war, gradually the central government was able to stop the advance of the separatists, who again switched to guerrilla tactics. 🔻What is happening now? In January 2023, after the start of the withdrawal (https://t.me/rybar/42794) of the Ethiopian armed forces from Tigray, the central government set its sights on expanding offensive operations against the Oromiya separatists in order to finally suppress the rebel movements in the country. The Oromo Liberation Army, for its part, is abandoning the real negotiation process, putting forward obviously impossible demands and continuing attacks on the armed forces. 🔻The continuation of the Oromian conflict causes the general dominance of the Amharic culture and language in multinational Ethiopia, as well as the unfair, according to many residents, the country's territorial structure. The largest ethnic groups still have territorial claims to their neighbors, which leads to armed clashes. On the Oromo separatists, after the de-escalation in Tigray and the withdrawal of troops from there, the main attention of the Ethiopian armed forces will be focused. At the same time, the government of Abiy Ahmed is likely to refrain from large-scale military action for the time being, as it needs a respite to restore the country's economy after an exhausting war and sanctions pressure

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