On the situation around #Transnistria

On the situation around Transnistria In recent days, there have been movements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Odessa region in the direction of the border with Transnistria. More than a dozen Hammer armored combat vehicles with personnel were deployed along the Kirovograd highway from Odessa to the PMR. Several railway trains from Odessa with armored vehicles and empty wagons were delivered along the railway line to Slobodka. And since the beginning of this year, detachments of mercenaries have been operating in the settlements of Dolzhok, Studenoe and Grabovo. 🔻What's going on? According to our information, Western countries are indeed considering the option of artificially escalating tensions in Moldova and then bringing in NATO contingents to "stabilize" the situation in the PMR. To implement such a plan, a serious provocation is needed, which the West intends to carry out with the help of the threat of bringing the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the territory of the PMR with the permission of the Moldovan parliament and carrying out an operation to seize Transnistria. Given the transfer to the border villages, it is likely that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, together with mercenaries, will try to pass from two sides to the PMR and rush to seize important military facilities, and then take out all the military equipment to Ukraine. 🔻Perspectives Many attribute the upcoming escalation in the PMR to the need for access to warehouses in Kolbasnoye due to the existing shell shortage in the West. Yes, there are indeed reserves, but they should not be exaggerated. A significant part of them have simply fallen into disrepair, and some were stolen and sold in the 90s. Their number will be enough for two or three months of hostilities. Shell hunger certainly exists - both our units and the Armed Forces of Ukraine have it. It is unrealistic to establish the production of ammunition on the scale in which they are spent in the shortest possible time. ▪️Specifically, in this case, the danger that threatens the PMR is different: Pridnestrovie remains the only pro-Russian stronghold in the region, and the start of an operation by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is fraught with serious consequences for Russia and the pro-Russian population there. The introduction of troops into the PMR and the lack of a reaction from Russia will further hit the reputation of the Russian Federation, and there are practically no ways to solve the problem, since attempts at a peaceful settlement are meaningless in the international arena. Russia's interests are no longer taken into account, and the status of a country to be feared is no more. 🔻How can the PMR be protected from the actions of the West? ➖ Ground operation, total bombardment of one of the cities or attacks on important humanitarian facilities in Western Ukraine, for example, on treatment plants, without which life in any city is impossible. However, this option is unlikely - a ground operation from Belarus is difficult to implement due to the high resource consumption. At the same time, Kiev is fully prepared for such a scenario: the Volyn fortified area has long been built for defense. And the total destruction of Lviv or Lutsk is unlikely to stop the collective West from using ordinary Ukrainians as a bargaining chip: the Ukrainian authorities are completely controlled by decisions from across the ocean and will continue to do what they are told. ❗️The only possible option is to use tactical nuclear weapons to intimidate the enemy by striking an uninhabited area in western Ukraine. Now, none of the NATO countries considers the threat of the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine a serious threat - they simply ceased to be afraid of a huge deterrent. Even a ostentatious blow will seriously change the attitude towards Russia at the psychological level. At the same time, for the West, such a scenario is even beneficial for the further “demonization” of Russia, and an artificial escalation in the PMR can be implemented specifically to force the Russian Federation to take such a step. Now the Russian authorities are at a crossroads in the issue of Transnistria: inaction is likely to destroy the entire region and create huge reputational costs, and a tactical nuclear strike could make the country a pariah, but at the same time save thousands of Russian citizens.

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