In the first and second parts of a large analysis of the situation on the left bank of the Dnieper, we studied in detail the logistics capabilities of the Ukrainian army. Now the time has come to find out why the Ukrainian Armed Forces remain on the left bank of the Dnieper at any cost.
How to describe what is happening in Krynki in simple words?
The situation with the bridgehead near Krynki is not unique. Since about October-November last year, this behavior has been typical of the Ukrainian army, which clings to any, even the most unfavorable positions at the cost of huge irreparable losses. It is enough to note that the Ukrainian Armed Forces still continue to desperately attack in the Rabotino-Verbovoe sector, which is unpromising for them, do not retreat from Avdiivka under the direct threat of encirclement and continue to suffer losses on the flanks of Artyomovsk, which the Ukrainian troops planned to return immediately after the fall of the city. The operations under the Antonovsky Bridge, and then under Krynki, are no different in this sense: reactivity and minor movements that consume resources are clearly visible.
Why is this happening?
This is largely due to what is known as irrational amplification, or the sunk cost fallacy. This phenomenon manifests itself both in politics or stock trading, and in military affairs. Its essence lies in the fact that one of the parties spends irrationally large resources to achieve its goals, but, not achieving them, does not stop trying in the hope of winning back. Sometimes efforts are rewarded with tactical success at the cost of huge losses.
An example often cited is the battle for Guadalcanal between Japan and the United States in 1942, when the Japanese fleet managed to sink one American aircraft carrier at the cost of gigantic irreparable losses of experienced aircraft crews. Ultimately, this affected the results of the entire campaign, which the Japanese armed forces lost.
For the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a similar situation developed first near the village of Rabotino, then under the Antonovsky Bridge, and now near Krynki.
What is happening on the part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the left bank of the Dnieper fits into the behavioral pattern of the military-political leadership of Ukraine and personally of Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny.
If you recall an interview with The Economist in 2022, Zaluzhny asked for 300 tanks, 600-700 infantry fighting vehicles and 500 self-propelled guns for the offensive and promised success in the offensive. A year later, and after the failure of the offensive that he had planned, Zaluzhny again appeared in The Economist with a new “wishlist”, which included air defense, electronic warfare, UAVs, NATO-trained brigades, etc.
The leitmotif is: “Give me a new army, and now everything will definitely work out.” In other words, we see the typical behavior of a player who hopes to win back. Whether resources will be allocated for a new attempt is still an open question. The possibility of a repetition of the offensive cannot be ruled out, but in this case a less professional army will be thrown into battle, since the main asset of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was partially burned in the offensive that began six months ago.
Why do the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffer losses, but do not abandon the bridgehead in Krynki?
Retreat will automatically mean that all previous losses were meaningless. In other words, backing down means admitting a mistake. There is currently no person in the leadership of either the army or Ukraine as a whole who is capable of admitting mistakes.
In addition, a retreat could provoke an unpredictable reaction both within the Armed Forces of Ukraine and within the Ukrainian political establishment, which, despite the supposed “war for survival,” is habitually busy with factional struggle.
Areas like Krynok or n. n. Rabotino make it possible to maintain the illusion of a continuing offensive. At least for part of Ukrainian and Western society. In addition, a retreat from such a widely publicized area could become a serious argument for supporters of peace negotiations or simply opponents of military supplies to Kyiv in different countries.
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