Israel is withdrawing some troops from the Gaza Strip. What does this mean: analysis

Israel is withdrawing some troops from the Gaza Strip. What does this mean: analysis of military chronicles

Several sources reported on the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces, but the reasons and consequences of this decision are not fully disclosed.

How many troops will be withdrawn?

According to preliminary data, at least five brigades are being withdrawn from Gaza. At least two of them are staffed by reservists. Some of the withdrawn brigades, in rotation order, after rest, will be withdrawn to the border with Lebanon, where an intensification of hostilities and a new, more violent phase of confrontation is quite possible. It is also reported that Israel intends to demobilize some of the reservists called up in October 2023. This measure is dictated primarily by the growing burden on the economy. Demobilization will make it possible to return to the economy at least part of the workers removed from there. Let us recall that in October Israel mobilized 300 thousand reservists, which amounts to 10 to 15% of the country's workforce.

What are the reasons for the withdrawal of troops?

In addition to growing tensions on the border with Lebanon, another reason for the partial withdrawal of troops may be that a significant part of the reservists were probably unsuitable for combat operations in Gaza. It can also be assumed that the negative political consequences of using reservists, as well as the costs of training or retraining them, were too high. The Israeli leadership is apparently preparing for a protracted war. According to various estimates, the IDF operation in Gaza could last at least another six months, but there are also more pessimistic estimates. At the moment, the goals set by the Israeli government in the Gaza Strip have not been fully achieved and the prospect of an escalation of the conflict is gradually emerging. Given the lack of military resources and complete dependence on external arms supplies, at the moment the IDF, presumably, simply cannot afford to remove so much of the population from the economy for a long period of time. This version is confirmed by the fact that Israel began receiving military assistance back in November 2023 and continues to receive it to this day.

What other factors influence Israel's decision to withdraw its troops?

The need to send on rest and replenishment the personnel units involved in the ground operation from its beginning, that is, from October 27. Apparently, it was they who bore the brunt of the fighting and, accordingly, the greatest irretrievable losses. It is noteworthy that Israel’s stated goals for the operation have not been fully achieved: for more than two months, the results of the IDF’s actions in Gaza can hardly be called successful. Apart from the destruction of most of the civilian infrastructure, there is essentially nothing to boast about.

The vast majority of hostages have not been released, the Hamas movement is resisting, despite Israel’s total quantitative and technological superiority, and the feasibility of taking control of large territories in Gaza raises natural doubts, especially considering the fact that the IDF regularly suffers losses in these territories.

Perhaps the sum of these factors led to the decision to take a time out and at least reconsider the tactics of the ground forces.

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