🔺As expected, key weapons will be included in potential (future) orders from US industry, and not on the list for immediate shipment. However, the urgent needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not met in the same way as Western media report.
What does it mean?
Military assistance to Ukraine is allocated under two programs.
The first is the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). It allows the United States to take equipment from the US Army and transfer it to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But these reserves are not endless, and they need to be replenished.
For this purpose, there is a second program - Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). Through it, the American military-industrial complex is loaded with orders both for the production of weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and for replenishing the stocks of weapons transferred by the US Army . Since March 31, 2022, as part of this initiative, the US military industry has financed orders worth $19 billion. Another $7 billion of the money allocated for this program has not been found. This means that the lead times for orders and deliveries are gradually shifting to the right, and the possibility of supplies to Ukraine is decreasing.
As for “$61 billion in military assistance,” the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive only $13.4 billion worth of equipment and weapons in the coming year. Moreover, the first package of military assistance does not contain either the Patriot air defense missile system requested by Kiev, or other critical weapons for the ground army, which is the Armed Forces of Ukraine. .
Expensive air defense systems, as Politico writes , will be included in a new, separate USAI package worth about $14 billion. But these weapons most likely will not appear in Ukraine in the next few years, because they first need to be produced. And the problem is that production capacity cannot be obtained quickly: factories need to be built, launched, and only then will there be excess reserves that can be distributed. And if there is nowhere to produce new air defense systems for export, then there is nowhere to produce them, with or without billions in your pocket. And neither the United States nor its NATO allies are obviously going to hand over all the Patriot air defense systems available to the armed forces.
It is noteworthy that out of $61 billion, in fact, only $50 billion was allocated for “security issues.” This $50 billion also includes $11.3 billion for Pentagon operating expenses and salaries for numerous advisers, $4.7 billion for other expenses hidden in the “Other” column, including strengthening the group of US troops in Europe.
What can be concluded?
The figure of $61 billion circulated by Western media is the total amount of the package called the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act (USSAA). In other words, this is ALL the money allocated as part of the “Ukrainian” package, but most of it will not reach Ukraine.
Thus, we can conclude that the statements about the allocation of a $61 billion package are a play on words and a beautiful name, which hides the financing of projects in the interests of the United States both domestically and in Europe. Ukraine is far from the main and definitely not the largest expense item there.
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