military supplies to Ukraine

The United States may resume arms supplies to the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the end of next week. What does this give to Ukraine?

🔺The head of the US Senate Intelligence Committee, Mark Warner, said that the United States could resume military supplies to Ukraine by the end of next week. What weapons are we talking about and how will everything work?

What does the new military budget mean for Ukraine and how does it work?

In addition to the fact that the vote for a new package of military aid passed in the US House of Representatives, the bill must be approved in the Senate. Only after this the document will be “authorized” for execution and – theoretically – the first deliveries will begin.

Taking into account the fact that in fact, from $13 billion to $23 billion in funding will actually reach Ukraine in general and the Armed Forces of Ukraine in particular in the form of military equipment, equipment and ammunition in one form or another, there is every reason to believe that military packages of similar volumes this year ( and probably in the next one) will no longer stand out. This means that as weapons and equipment arrive, everything will have to be “spread” in an even layer, both in the areas of combat operations and in time, as well as the intensity of use. In other words, it is impossible to use everything at once, but the Russian army may be ready to use certain weapons in certain directions (such as attacks on Crimea).

Will Ukraine be given new weapons?

Yes and no. In addition to direct shipments from the arsenals of the American army as part of the PDA package and loading of the American military industry through the USAI program, we will probably talk about weapons already transferred (and not yet published) or located on Polish territory.

In particular, we can talk about long-range modifications of ATACMS Block 1A missiles with a range of up to 300 km.

These weapons may be sufficient for launches at targets deep in the defense of the Russian Armed Forces, but the main problem of the Ukrainian army with the supply of such weapons will not disappear anywhere and will remain the same: a shortage of shells, air defense systems and much more.

The issue of supplying 1 million shells per year has not yet been resolved by the common efforts of the USA, EU and allies in various regions of the world, and the transfer of all available Patriot/SAMP-T/NASAMS air defense systems has not yet begun due to political disagreements (and is unlikely to be implemented in the form in which they want it in Ukraine).

The supply of armored vehicles in this regard is not much different from the supply of air defense: neither the United States nor Europe are in a hurry to reset their own reserves, although there are still a lot of mothballed armored vehicles abroad.

What's the result?

If the supply of air defense systems and their placement around energy and industrial facilities makes sense, then saturating the Ukrainian army with armored vehicles, as well as ammunition and spare parts for them (as well as the necessary level of supply of equipment, which simply did not exist from the very beginning of hostilities) in greater numbers scales than it was before, not only will they not change, but in the future they will worsen the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

To control a large number of tanks, you need tens of thousands of experienced and well-coordinated tankers (who are nowhere to be found), fuel, tactics, intelligence, fire support and much more. In a word, everything is the same as before the start of arms supplies from abroad.

Here it is worth remembering how many weapons and equipment the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already absorbed since 2022. Through the PDA program (direct shipments from US Army arsenals), approximately $24 billion in military aid was transferred to Ukraine from 2022 to 2024.

It is also curious that the composition of the new “megapackage” of military assistance is still unknown in principle. But with a high degree of probability it can be argued that it will not include a multiple increase in the supply of armored vehicles and everything that the Ukrainian Armed Forces require at the front every day. Thus, it is rather necessary to produce a psychological effect. The financial volume of assistance is not large enough to talk about some kind of scrapping in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and reformatting military assistance for things actually necessary for the Ukrainian army will take years.

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