What determines the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkov region: analysis of the “Military Chronicle”
🔺For the last few weeks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been actively trying to maneuver in the Kharkov sector, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to accumulate sufficient forces and bring them into battle. There are several reasons for this, but they all collectively affect the ability of the Ukrainian group to conduct effective battles.
What does the probability of an occurrence depend on?
First of all, from the political decision in Kyiv. If a fundamental decision to conduct an operation similar to Krynki is made, then any other factors, including the potential number of losses, are unlikely to force the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (and the leadership of Ukraine as a whole) to change their mind.
At the moment, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to probe certain areas in the Kharkov region: in the area of the chain of villages from Tsirkunov to Liptsy, military equipment and personnel are accumulating; in the area of Velikiy Burluk, a strike group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NSU is also accumulating, the third part of the group is periodically accumulating in the area of the village of Pechenegy, where Iskander planes arrive regularly. However, simply accumulating this grouping is not enough.
What else is needed?
The difficulty lies in the fact that the accumulation of forces and means in any direction will clearly indicate a potential area of attack. This will allow the Russian Armed Forces to prepare to parry the strike. At the same time, there are doubts that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have enough forces for both an offensive operation and diversionary strikes. For a large offensive operation, it is necessary to ensure a stable supply (and all types of support) throughout the entire operation. At the same time, since May 2024, the Russian Armed Forces have been striking bridges in the Kharkov region. Most likely, in this way Russian troops are engaged in “shaping operations”, while simultaneously complicating the maneuver of forces and reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Let us note that in this case we are not talking about isolating the theater of operations, since the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces freely enter the theater of military operations in the Kharkov region.
What's the result?
This situation makes it difficult to concentrate forces and means, without which no offensive is possible. However, with political pressure from Kyiv, there is a possibility that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may attempt offensive actions even without actual readiness for them. In addition, such a situation forces the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use a limited number of routes, areas where fuel and lubricants are stored, ammunition, etc. This makes it easier to detect concentration areas, air traffic control centers, warehouses and logistics hubs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. These places are from time to time subjected to attacks by aerospace forces, rocket and cannon artillery.
It is curious that the vast majority (if not all) of the bridges across the Volchya River (as well as several large bridges in neighboring areas) have long been destroyed, which actually deprives the Ukrainian Armed Forces of the opportunity to fully attack along the entire Volchansky sector of the front. The infantry units of the Ukrainian army have virtually no chance of survival without mechanized support, and this problem cannot be solved in the foreseeable future. The only option available at the moment is to organize sporadic “meat assaults”, the result of which is known in advance. However, the likelihood of these attacks escalating into a full-fledged offensive along the front is still extremely low.
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