Dangerous crossroads: A historical and contemporary review and analysis of insurgency and terrorism in Turkey
Georgios Vasileiadis Project Manager at IntellMiner
Twenty four major and minor attacks took place in Turkey during 2016 alone which resulted in the death of more than 250 people. The latest attack at Reina nightclub only verified what was expected: Turkey has entered a new era of terror in its territory, in its Capital and its major cities. The previous time such height of terrorism was recorded in Turkey was in the early nineties. Of course the sociopolitical situation in Turkey has changed since that time yet the country still suffers casualties and as the causes have only become more complex the likelihood of a major social and political unrest increases.
Twenty four major and minor attacks took place in Turkey during 2016 alone which resulted in the death of more than 250 people. The latest attack at Reina nightclub only verified what was expected: Turkey has entered a new era of terror in its territory, in its Capital and its major cities. The previous time such height of terrorism was recorded in Turkey was in the early nineties. Of course the sociopolitical situation in Turkey has changed since that time yet the country still suffers casualties and as the causes have only become more complex the likelihood of a major social and political unrest increases.
Turkey's solidarity with Hamas is not, of course, based on Arab nationalism, which as a non-Arab nation it does not support. It is instead based on a definition of the Mideast conflict as one between Jews and Muslims, precisely the position of Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda.
Elliott Abrams
A brief historical background (1993 - 2016)
Back in the early nineties Turkey suffered a barrage of attacks organized and carried out by Kurdish militia. The Turkish armed forces launched a massive counter-attack under the code name 'Castle Plan' bringing the war to the territories held by the Kurds, especially in Iraq. Thus, Ankara managed to considerably decrease the operational capabilities of the Kurds yet no peace was achieved.
Prior to the implementation of the 'Castle Plan' the Turkish President Turgut Özal (of Kurdish origins), taking into consideration the new geopolitical dynamics developed in the region as a result of the Gulf War, had begun peace talks with the Kurds. The negotiations led to a cease-fire agreement on March 20, 1993. Yet, the untimely death of Özal on April 14, 1993 just before he could pass major pro-Kurdish reforms put a halt in the process and Özal's proposals were never presented before the National Security Council. On May 24, 1993, an allegedly PKK ambush targeting Turkish security personnel put an end to the ceasefire. Semdin Kakik, the former PKK commander, insisted that the ambush was not organized nor carried out by PKK and that the attack was work of the alleged group Doğu Çalışma Grubu (or East Study Group in Eglish, which allegedly prepared an alleged Military Coup in Turkey in 1993). Additionally, a number of journalists and politicians firmly believe that Özal's death was not of natural causes.
Following Özal's reign no government attempted to re-approach the Kurdish leadership aiming at reach a permanent resolution despite the calls for discussion by the Kurds.
The arrest of the Kurdish iconic leader Abdullah Ocalan on February 15, 1999 combined with the decisive crackdowns of the Turkish army proved to be a turning point as the Kurds withdrew the main body of their forces to Syria and other Arab states signaling a somewhat enforced unilateral ceasefire that lasted from 1999 to 2004. During that time PKK was renamed to KADEK declaring that the armed struggle had fulfill its purpose and that it was time to alter its strategy to peaceful methods in pursuing its goals. In 2004, with Erdoğan already in power since 2002, PKK decided to continue its insurgency. Already starting from 2003 KADEK was facing internal issues as the political movement had practically split to those who wanted the complete disarmament of the Kurdish militia and those who wanted the resume of the armed struggle. Adding the fact that some Kurdish factions such as the 'Kurdistan Freedom Falcons' continued to operate using arms while the Turkish forces, violating the truce according to the Kurds, continued to perform raids against Kurdish targets made the prospect of peace fade away. Both sides still accuse each other of violating the agreement and regardless of who holds more responsibility the point is that the second insurgency started in 2004 as PKK declared that the Turkish government repeatedly was ignoring its calls for discussion.
From 2004 till 2009 the moderate Islamic government of AK Party was struggling with PKK attacks on Turkish military targets. Even cross-border operations conducted by the Turkish army proved fruitless besides probably airborne attacks on Kurdish targets. Therefore in an attempt to approach the Kurds Erdogan, serving as the Prime Minister at that time, decided to launch TRT 6 the first Kurdish-language channel in Turkey. Soon after the local elections that took place on March 19, 2009 and in which the pro-Kurdish party DT Party won the majority in the South East, Abdullah Öcalan called for ceasefire and the preparation for peace. As a response Erdoğan announced the 'Kurdish initiative' that was proposing to rename villages predominantly populated by Kurds within the Turkish territory and that had been given Turkish names. In addition, Erdoğan proposed to give partial amnesty to PKK fighters and to restore the Turkish citizenship to Kurdish refugees, expand the scope of freedom of expression and enhance the local governance in the South East. Of course these steps taken by AK Party were not purely out of conscious humanitarian politics for the Kurds, the largest minority within Turkey, but during the pick of the EU - Turkey membership negotiations. In spite of that one cannot deny that Erdoğan was the first to propose tangible social and political assets to the Kurds in many years. However the 'Kurdish initiative' was never implemented as the the DT Party was banned by the Turkish constitutional court on December 11, 2009. The Turkish authorities arrested 1.400 DTP members of which 900 were detained. DTP leaders were subsequently put on trial for terrorism fact that triggered major demonstrations across regions predominantly populated by Kurds which were countered with further crackdowns by the Turkish riot police. On May 10, 2010 PKK resumed its insurgency and on May 31 of the same year Abdullah Öcalan announced an end to his attempts at establishing dialogue with the Turkish government, leaving PKK top commanders in charge of the conflict.
On December 28, 2011 and as the Syrian conflict had already started, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a televised interview announced that the government was negotiating with the jailed Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan for another truce. The negotiations were named 'Solution process'. The negotiations seemed to run smoothly despite the situation in Syria and on April 25, 2013 Öcalan had a letter read both in Turkish and Kurdish during Nowruz celebrations in Diyarbakir calling the armed struggle to an end. PKK vowed to obey withdrawing its forces from Turkish soil to Northern Iraq. Nevertheless, peace did not last for long as Ankara's decision to blockade or at least interrupt support destined to Kobane Kurdish forces triggered pro-Kurdish protests across Turkey in which 37 people were killed as clashes between Kurds and (Kurdish aka Turkish) Hizbollah sympathizers took place (the Kurdish Hesbollah also known as the Turkish Hezbollah or simply Hizbollah in Tukey is a Kurdish outlaw Sunni organization operating against the PKK and the Turkish government ). The Kurds accused the AKP government of supporting the self-proclaimed Islamic State as well as other labeled as 'moderate' Islamist armed groups in Syria which are in direct conflict with the Kurdish militia.
Throughout the Syrian conflict Turkey was in absolute alignment with the United States and the coalition goals: Overthrow Assad from power and establish a pro-Western, pro-Turkish government. Turkey was doing everything in order to assist with the best possible way the coalition forces by giving access to military bases to sabotage the Russian role in the Syrian conflict.
Up to that time Turkey had not any records of attacks targeting state property, conducted by religious extremists. Beginning counting from the 1970's up to recently terrorist acts targeting property or servicemen of the Turkish Republic have in their vast majority been carried out by far-left groups such as the 'Turkish People's Liberation Army' and the 'Dev Sol' or groups with nationalistic ideology such as the 'Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia', the 'Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine' or the 'Grey Wolves'. PKK begun its insurgency in the late 1980's.
The first time an attack with clearly religious motives that took place in Turkey but not against property or personnel of the state was the Neve Shalom Temple (Jewish) attack conducted on September 6, 1986 by two perpetrators who killed 21 people using firearms and a hand grenade. The perpetrators were never arrested. The next time a political attack with both religious and political motives occurred on November 10, 1991 in Ankara where the 'Turkish Islamic Jihad' took up responsibility for a double hit on foreign officers stationed in Turkey. Again the targets weren't property or servicemen of the Turkish Republic. A few more attacks by groups with religious aspirations were carried out during the 1990's and early 2000's yet all of them targeted journalists, NGOs, private citizens and educational institutions (usually foreign or belonging to a minority ) . None targeted property of the State.
The self-proclaimed Islamic State started making headlines in Turkey in 2014 as a series of attacks mainly on private property and citizens of Kurdish origins were thought to have been carried out by the group although IS never claimed responsibility. The height of these attacks was the pro-Kurdish Rally suicide attack that took place in Ankara on November 10, 2015 where 103 people were killed and 245 were injured. It was not before the January 12, 2016 when a suicide bomber targeting a crowd of mainly German tourists waiting at the Tram station in the historic Sultanahmet Square in Istanbul caused the death of 12 people and damaged the image and the economy of Turkey, action that did hurt Erdoğan's AK Party the actual target of the perpetrator.
So, what has changed in comparison to the previous decades and an Islamic insurgency group launched for the first time in the history of Turkey an attack that was directly aiming at damaging the Turkish government?
During the long Kemalist era religion and minorities were suppressed. Things used to become more difficult when the army was taking charge. And yet, despite the limited freedom of expression, no radical Islamic group ever managed or even attempted as far as we know to carry out an attack against the Kemalist regime. That was a result of a quarter of a century of Kemalist governance of the Republic with an iron fist. The secret police, MiT and the Army were controlling almost every aspect of the social life and potential threats were being neutralized before they could become actual threats to the security of the state. In addition, all Turkish secular governments had and still have close ties and relations with the United States and its agencies, sharing key intelligence that prevented the destabilization of Turkey.
Unlike the previous governments, AK Party decided to follow a populist approach by offering to almost every social group within the Turkish society something. Erdoğan decided to continue playing the card of nationalism in order to keep the Kemalists at bay while at the same time he tried to approach alienated minorities in Turkey by granting them more freedom of expression and political rights. On top of that Erdoğan did his best to increase the religious sentiment of his compatriots, who after all had been deprived of their right to perform their religious duties freely, by restoring and building more Mosques, opening Islamic Schools and decreasing the teaching hours of the English language at high schools in order to increase the teaching hours of Islamic studies. Last but not least, the conservative Turkish leader implemented liberal economic policies that allowed the emergence of a new middle-class in Turkey, loyal to the ruling Party. Turkey was labeled an emerging economy and for a few years, despite the problems here and there, Islamists, Kemalists, Nationalists, Kurds, other ethnic and religious minorities seemed to get along under the AK Party umbrella. However, scandals involving AKP high rank members including Erdoğan himself, historical reasons as mentioned above and recent developments appear to have halt if not put an end to what AK Party was trying to achieve: A neo-Ottoman state where every social group could see itself fit into. Economic issues, nationalism, terrorism and the destabilization of the region have affected the Turkish society deeply bringing about signs of critical social and political fragmentation. Such conditions are ideal for forces that claim land and power. Ankara may just label PKK and the self-proclaimed Islamic State as terrorist organizations but the truth is that both are more than that. PKK and IS are insurgencies.
Islamic State follows the Salafi transnational religious-political ideology which considers physical Jihadism legitimate and necessary in order to achieve its goal. Salafism is a reformist movement divided in three groups, we are interested in two of them: The so-called 'Activistis' and the 'Jihadists'. Both involved in politics, unlike the first group called the 'Purists', and both seeking to enforce the Sharia law within the limits of a given territory called 'Khalifa'. The 'Activists', the majority of which the Salafi movement is consisted of, claim to eschew violence yet as we will see provoke it. The 'Jihadists' directly engage in violence as they consider it the only means of change. The Salafist movement has its roots back in the 18th century becoming the main opposition against the Western Colonialism in the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent. Salafists reject Democracy, Shia rule and consider themselves 'true' Sunnis. Salafi groups are well-organized and funded having branches all over the world, including the West. The Saudi and Qatari rulers are some of the Salafi movement known sponsors and both have been very keen and diligent using their influence and resources to promote Salafism on a global scale.
The restoration of the Islamic identity in Turkey by AK Party allowed fundamentalist Sunni movements such as the Salafi to infiltrate the country in various ways. Besides bookstores that promote Jihadism, a few Salafi movements operate in Turkey under a legal or semi-legal status. The most notorious is Hizb ut Tahrir, a Salafi 'Activist' movement with branches in numerous Arab and Western countries including Turkey. Hizb ut Tahrir likewise other 'Activist' Salafi movements is against the usage of violence amongst its members yet the organization has been selective when it comes to condemning acts of terror. The attack at Reina club for example was labeled as 'lowly' most likely because Muslims were also killed while regarding the assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Ankara on December 19, 2016 Hizb ut Tahrir published a statement in which they explain the motives behind the act from their point of view and conclude underlining that that the officer acted alone. Hizb ut Tahrir did not condemn the assassination of the Russian Ambassador, instead attempted to explain it in a way that the act seems justified and in order to avoid prosecutions the organization dismisses the possibility of third-part involvement thus also the responsibility of radicalizing individuals via the views and ideas they spread using a variety of means (electronic, hardcopy, in person).
The moderate Islamist government of AK Party during the past couple of years was repeatedly accused by secular opposition parties in Turkey as well as by government officials and journalists across Europe, the United States and Russia that its security forces weren't performing their duties as expected by closing down all the roots used by IS fighters across the Syrian-Turkish border. The US Vice President Joe Biden had repeatedly urged the Turkish government to secure its South borders more effectively. When Ankara stepped up last summer reinforcing its streched across the borderline army, Assad and his allies accused Turkey of preparing an invasion to Syria aiming at establishing a buffer zone across the northern borders which practically would prevent the Syrian Army from re-claiming those regions. The Kurdish militia stated that the Turkish government is not protecting its borders from IS fighters but rather is attempting to blockade the Kurdish fighters from receiving support, especially in Kobane. During that time reports begun emerging showing IS fighters being hospitalized in Turkey. Other reports were presenting records of oil being transported by IS held regions to Turkey. Based on these reports Russia presented on December 2, 2016 UAV footage of convoys allegedly transporting oil to Turkey from Syria. At that time, Aleppo is still under the control of rebel forces and generally the Turkish opposition, journalists, foreign leaders and officials are under the impression that Ankara is doing its best to sabotage the Russians and assist the rebels, even IS indirectly. At the beginning of last December the Syrian Army with the support of Russian intelligence and special forces begun re-claiming Aleppo changing the power balance in the region. Turkey, which already was in bad terms with the United States at that point, jumped the wagon and joined Russia in an effort to bring peace in the region. Whereas this plan is possible under the current circumstances is a topic itself, what matters is the diplomatic pivot Ankara performed.
Even though the Ankara - Washington relations were seriously damaged after Erdoğan accused Washington for cooperating with a 'terrorist', Fethullah Gülen, whom Ankara sees as the figure behind the failed coup d'état on July, 15 2016, the pivot came somewhat as a surprise considering, aside historical and geopolitical factors, a series of recent events that include the downing of a Russian fighter jet allegedly over Syrian airspace by Turkish jets and the assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Ankara, Andrei Karlov. Nevertheless, the point is that Russia, for the time being at least, has oust the United States from the negotiation table regarding Syria's future and discusses with Turkey and Iran. Russia is viewed by the Salafi as another colonial power and Iran is a by default enemy as it is ruled by a Shia regime directly competing with Saudi Arabia over the supremacy in the region. The fact that the Turkish government appears to have reached a settlement with Russia and Iran regarding Aleppo fuels the situation. Erdoğan is a traitor in the eyes of the Salafi and Turkey shows signs of diplomatic inconsistency.
Aleppo’s snow has melted; the sins of the agent rulers and factions, and it became clear to all who have sight, even to the visionary who lost sight, no blur remains in the eyes, but it is as clear as daylight for all who can see ... You were deceived by the rulers, especially the neighbours, in particular Erdogan of Turkey, and especially those factions that handed over Aleppo and other than Aleppo in response to the money of those rogue traitors.
extract from an article published on the official Hizb ut Tahrir webpage
The similarities between what Hizb ut Tahrir states in the article regarding Aleppo and the slogans shouted by Mevlut Mert Altintas, the police officer who killed the Russian Ambassador in Ankara, are astonishing. Yet the problem is not just if the gunman, who is considered a heroic figure amongst many in Turkey and abroad, carried out a well-planned attack or whether he was radicalized directly or indirectly by a group. The main issue is that AK Party government continues to put the blame on all the wrong sides (Ergenekon and Doğu Çalışma Grubu both organizations allegedly existing, Fetullah Gulen's movement which only Turkey has listed as a terrorist group, CIA allegedly involved in the failed coup attempt), often blaming the same political entities or organizations Hizb ut Tahrir and other Salafi groups blame.
It is one of the gravest afflictions that Erdogan’s regime sits at the same table with Putin, in a humiliating and disgraceful sell-out deal, the sale of Aleppo and the people of Aleppo and what will come after Aleppo, and he treats it as victory and congratulates Putin for it!
extract from an article published on the official Hizb ut Tahrir webpage
However the biggest problem, especially for AK Party, is that the Hizb ut Tahrir accusations seem the least truthful and legitimate to those who share their views. Remeber, for the Salafis dealing with Shia rulers and colonialists does not promote the interests of Islam. On October, 6 1981, the President of Egypt, Anwar Sadat was assassinated by Jihadists because he signed the Camp David Accords with the State of Israel.
The Turkish government post to the purge it performed in the armed, the security and the intelligence forces as a response to the failed coup d'etat shows signs of serious security laps. Furthermore, the raids by the Turkish authorities against Hizb ut Tahrir members although justified come a little too late. In fact, Erdoğan, who up till recently was viewed by the members of such groups as an ally has become a traitor, polarizing the already fragile Turkish society. The attacks from all sides have created a momentum for follow up attacks.
Who benefits?
As things stand, everyone but Turkey. Russia and Assad took over Aleppo and gain time as the negotiations take place, Iran still has great influence in Syria and other Shia states and most likely it will be the one who will blockade Turkey's demands regarding Syria in the ongoing negotiations. The self-proclaimed Islamic State may have lost manpower and land yet it still has footholds within Syria and Iraq and has re-claimed Palmyra. Saudi Arabia benefits as states that weren't under its influence are now plunged or about to plunge into chaos while the United States, quietly, are still in and about Syria and most likely will have a more active role regarding Syria's future as the war progresses.
What to expect?
It is extremely difficult to estimate what the future holds as the power balances change constantly, nevertheless we can be sure about the following:The Syrian conflict is not a civil war, it is part of a greater cultural conflict and it is far from being resolved.
The possibility for a greater war in the region remains.
Turkey most likely will be rocked by more attacks. The society will be polarized further while in addition there is actual threat for the safety of several non-Muslim minorities in Turkey due to security laps.
Europe is already a target and the worst thing is that Salafi 'Activist' movements already operate legally in several European countries, such as Germany, Holland and Sweden.
Russia has become apparently a target and logic suggests that extremists will seek to perform an attack within Russian territory.
The immigration issue will probably intensify, affecting European politics in a way that we may be unable to predict at the moment.
Recent history has taught us that the Western and to be more precise the American, British and French interference in the Middle East and North Africa unleashed a power that could not be controlled by those who brought it into surface. Maybe peace will prevail in some decades from now, but the cost will be immense and there is always the possibility that it will not be forgotten or forgiven. It now seems most unlike but rulers who up till recently were labeled as tyrants by the West were actually keeping things together in a region where war breaks out for reasons for more than just oil and money and West has failed to see that or at least to take it seriously into consideration and the result is that the oppressed has become the oppressor. Well-armed, well-organized and well-funded. This war for the greater Middle East is far from being resolved.
All the Kaffir (those who reject Islam) colonialists and every oppressive tyrant and every evil hypocrite will taste what they deserve of punishment.
taken from the conclusion of a leaflet published by Hizb ut Tahrir regarding the assassination of Andrei Karlov
Note for the readers: The goal of the article is to offer readers a clearer (yet not complete) picture of the situation in Turkey. The article does not serve the purpose of a chronicle of past and recent attacks, therefore, key events, such as the armed attack at the International Airport of Istanbul 'Ataturk', were not mentioned.
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