Written by Jason Simpkins
Donald Trump is going use nuclear weapons.
I'm calling it now.
And he could do it sooner than you might want to believe.
If you think I’m paranoid, I hope you’re right.
I hope I’m wrong.
But when I look at what’s going on around the world, and when I look at the kind of person Donald Trump is, it just seems obvious to me that we’re heading for something big.
So please allow me to make the following case…
Point #1: Donald Trump Already Said He’d Do It… Repeatedly
Donald Trump has been talking about using nuclear weapons for more than two years.
The first reference I could find was a conversation he had with Chris Matthews in March 2015.
“Somebody hits us within ISIS — you wouldn’t fight back with a nuke?” Trump asked. “Why are we making them? Why do we make them?”
“Look, nuclear should be off the table,” he added. “But would there be a time when it could be used, possibly, possibly?”
Trump expanded on his position the very next day, in an interview with Fox News, saying he wouldn’t rule out the possibility of using nukes in Europe.
“Europe is a big place,” Trump said. “I’m not going to take cards off the table. We have nuclear capability… The thought of it is horrible. But I don’t want to take anything off the table.”
Furthermore, Donald Trump reportedly asked a foreign policy expert on his transition team: “If we have them, why can’t we use them?”
He didn’t just ask the question once, either. He asked it three times.
Again, this is similar to Trump’s question to Chris Matthews, which was “Why do we make them?”
Presumably to use them, I suppose.
Trump has also repeatedly expressed his desire to expand our nuclear arsenal and capabilities.
In addition to numerous public comments, he tweeted this back in December:
“We're never going to fall behind any country, even if it's a friendly country, we're never going to fall behind on nuclear power," Trump said. "It would be wonderful, a dream would be that no country would have nukes, but if countries are going to have nukes, we're going to be at the top of the pack."
So in Donald Trump’s own words, he is seeking to expand the U.S. nuclear arsenal. And he’s not just doing it at as a deterrent, which the United States already has, or a show of force.
Trump is building nukes for their practical application. In other words, to “bomb the shit” out of someone.
Point #2: Donald Trump Goes Big
Donald Trump goes big.
This is something we all know about him.
Friend or foe, Democrat or Republican, supporter or protester, NO ONE uses any of the following words to describe Donald Trump:
Modest, Measured, Restrained, Reflective, Cautious, Mild-Mannered.
Words you will hear to describe Donald Trump:
Brash, Bold, Impulsive, Aggressive, Pugnacious, Egotistical.
Again, no one argues or denies this. Love him or hate him, that’s who he is.
But ask yourself, which set of words would be used to describe someone willing to drop an atomic bomb?
Just four months into his presidency, Trump dropped what the U.S. military calls the “mother of all bombs,” which is the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in our arsenal. Furthermore, he was largely applauded for making the decision to do so.
Well, there’s only one way to top that...
In terms of scale, of sending a message, of making headlines, making waves, upending the established order, demonstrating America’s military strength, and showing everyone who the boss is.
All Donald Trump needs to go nuclear is an excuse.
And he’s going to get one.
Question is, who’s going to provide it?
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Point #3: Somebody Is Going To Push Trump’s Buttons
Right now, the clear frontrunner is North Korea, with Iran in second.
North Korea has been a thorn in America’s side for decades now. And it’s really amped it up these past few years.
In addition to its human rights abuses, North Korea has doggedly pursued nuclear weapons — particularly intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Last week the country sent back a college student who had been part of a tour group visiting North Korea. He was detained by the regime for 17 months, during which he was subject to a show trial and unknown cruelties before he was suddenly returned to the U.S. — in a comatose state. He’s since died.
Meanwhile, North Korea’s state-run news agency has vowed the country would "take revenge upon the U.S. aggressors with the approach of June 25, the day of struggle against U.S. imperialism."
That’s dovetailed with reports that activity at known missile-launch sites is escalating, and speculation that another nuclear test is in the works. North Korea last tested a nuclear missile on September 9.
It’s also accused Donald Trump of preemptively plotting against it, saying “the Trump administration, obsessed by megalomania, is going arrogant to mount a preemptive nuclear strike at the DPRK.”
And honestly, it may be right about that.
You know Donald Trump would love to be the one who solves the North Korea problem with the push of a button.
His supporters would laud him as bold and decisive. They’d argue that it should have been done sooner, but Barack Obama was too weak.
Donald Trump would love that. He might not like the consequences of China’s military rushing in and threatening to obliterate the Pacific fleet. But boy, that adulation would be sweet.
If it’s not North Korea, though, it’ll be Iran.
There’s another country that’s been a royal pain for years, continually pushing to get a nuclear weapon and threatening to use it against Israel.
An editorial writer at a British newspaper, The Independent, last week predicted Trump would nuke Iran within two years.
While nuking North Korea has the unfortunate consequence of provoking China, Iran is largely despised by its neighbors.
Saudi Arabia and Israel, two U.S. allies, both have deep, longstanding grudges with Iran.
“Iran’s leaders routinely call for Israel’s destruction. Not with Donald J. Trump,” the President said to thunderous applause in May.
The only problem is that Iran does have an ally, and an important one, in Russia.
And I seriously doubt Trump would want to alienate his biggest benefactor.
So for now, I’m leaning toward North Korea getting the big one.
But who knows? Trump certainly is unpredictable.
What is predictable, however, is what will happen to your money. The U.S. dollar will get slammed, because no one really wants to hold the currency of a country that’s tied up in a nuclear war.
Conversely, it would be a renaissance for gold — the world’s supreme safe haven.
But other than that, you might invest in defense contractors, and maybe a company that builds fallout shelters.
Get paid,
Jason Simpkins
@OCSimpkins on TwitterJason Simpkins is a seven-year veteran of the financial publishing industry, where he's served as a reporter, analyst, investment strategist and prognosticator. He's written more than 1,000 articles pertaining to personal finance and macroeconomics. Simpkins also served as the chief investment analyst for a trading service that focused exclusively on high-flying energy stocks. For more on Jason, check out his editor's page.
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