)🏴 On the resumption of the Tehrik-e Taliban military campaign against the Pakistani authorities
The day before yesterday, November 28, the press service of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorist organization announced the end of the truce (https://t.me/rybar/33293) with the government of Pakistan and the start of an active military campaign against the country's authorities.
TTP militants said that the Pakistani leadership deceived the expectations of members of the group and continued to conduct military operations against the Pakistani Taliban.
▪️Members of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan are cunning: despite the declared ceasefire, the TTP militants themselves actively carried out sabotage and attacks on government troops. They either did not officially report this, or acted under a "foreign flag", using the banners of the TTP-affiliated "Hafiz Gul Bukhadur (https://t.me/rybar/37960)". Over the past week, Tehrik-e Taliban extremists have carried out at least 17 armed attacks on government forces. And in November there were more than 50 such attacks. 🔻What does this mean for Pakistan? In the short term, nothing will fundamentally change for the Pakistani government. The militants will continue incessant attacks, and the security forces will conduct counter-terrorist operations in the provinces bordering Afghanistan. However, in the future the situation in Pakistan may seriously worsen. Members of the TTP used periods of relative calm and the absence of large-scale operations by the Pakistani Armed Forces to strengthen themselves. Now the size of the organization has increased, and the weapons received after the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan have significantly increased the combat capabilities of the TTP. According to media affiliated with the Tehrik-e Taliban, the group's command plans to expand the geography of its activity in Pakistan by conducting sabotage in other provinces of the country. Previously, the radicals mostly acted only in the areas bordering Afghanistan. A full-scale military campaign against government forces is planned for 2025-2026. It is then that the leadership of the TPP plans to reach the maximum potential of its capabilities. 🔻What about the Afghan Taliban? The Internet is increasingly dispersing the thesis about the possible participation of the Afghan Taliban in operations in Pakistan. Against the backdrop of existing controversy regarding the Durand Line and militant nasheeds (https://t.me/rybar/35581) promoted by Taliban officials, this scenario is quite likely. Given the fraternal relations between the two groups, the Taliban leadership can easily turn a blind eye to the participation of their fighters in skirmishes under the banner of the TTP. And blurred borders and a common language are the perfect cover for covert assistance to Pakistani radicals. Tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan last week have already resulted in four (https://t.me/sputnikaf/17112?single) armed clashes on the border with the use of artillery at the Spin-Boldak and Kharlachi border crossings. At the same time, skirmishes between the military personnel of the two countries occur almost daily. ▪️Pakistani analysts link the activation of the TTP with the election of a new Chief of Staff of the country's Army (https://t.me/rybar/41478), General Asim Munir. Among his opponents was General Faiz Hameed, who was linked to the Taliban in many ways. He was the main negotiator and head of the delegation (https://t.me/rybar/34753) at several meetings in Kabul. It was after his removal (https://t.me/rybar/37105) from the peace process that the truce practically came to naught. 🔻 What are the prospects for the development of events? At present, there is no serious threat to Pakistan from TTP militants. Although members of the Tehrik-e Taliban have tried to take power in past years, they have not been successful. However, in the future, with the aggravation of the internal political crisis (https://t.me/rybar/40874) and the increase in the activity of ISIS terrorists and Baloch separatist groups, the situation may deteriorate sharply. And the futility of the process of demarcating the borders along the Durand Line and the lack of international recognition could cancel out the peaceful intentions of the Taliban and start a military campaign to expand south at the expense of Pakistan.
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▪️Members of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan are cunning: despite the declared ceasefire, the TTP militants themselves actively carried out sabotage and attacks on government troops. They either did not officially report this, or acted under a "foreign flag", using the banners of the TTP-affiliated "Hafiz Gul Bukhadur (https://t.me/rybar/37960)". Over the past week, Tehrik-e Taliban extremists have carried out at least 17 armed attacks on government forces. And in November there were more than 50 such attacks. 🔻What does this mean for Pakistan? In the short term, nothing will fundamentally change for the Pakistani government. The militants will continue incessant attacks, and the security forces will conduct counter-terrorist operations in the provinces bordering Afghanistan. However, in the future the situation in Pakistan may seriously worsen. Members of the TTP used periods of relative calm and the absence of large-scale operations by the Pakistani Armed Forces to strengthen themselves. Now the size of the organization has increased, and the weapons received after the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan have significantly increased the combat capabilities of the TTP. According to media affiliated with the Tehrik-e Taliban, the group's command plans to expand the geography of its activity in Pakistan by conducting sabotage in other provinces of the country. Previously, the radicals mostly acted only in the areas bordering Afghanistan. A full-scale military campaign against government forces is planned for 2025-2026. It is then that the leadership of the TPP plans to reach the maximum potential of its capabilities. 🔻What about the Afghan Taliban? The Internet is increasingly dispersing the thesis about the possible participation of the Afghan Taliban in operations in Pakistan. Against the backdrop of existing controversy regarding the Durand Line and militant nasheeds (https://t.me/rybar/35581) promoted by Taliban officials, this scenario is quite likely. Given the fraternal relations between the two groups, the Taliban leadership can easily turn a blind eye to the participation of their fighters in skirmishes under the banner of the TTP. And blurred borders and a common language are the perfect cover for covert assistance to Pakistani radicals. Tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan last week have already resulted in four (https://t.me/sputnikaf/17112?single) armed clashes on the border with the use of artillery at the Spin-Boldak and Kharlachi border crossings. At the same time, skirmishes between the military personnel of the two countries occur almost daily. ▪️Pakistani analysts link the activation of the TTP with the election of a new Chief of Staff of the country's Army (https://t.me/rybar/41478), General Asim Munir. Among his opponents was General Faiz Hameed, who was linked to the Taliban in many ways. He was the main negotiator and head of the delegation (https://t.me/rybar/34753) at several meetings in Kabul. It was after his removal (https://t.me/rybar/37105) from the peace process that the truce practically came to naught. 🔻 What are the prospects for the development of events? At present, there is no serious threat to Pakistan from TTP militants. Although members of the Tehrik-e Taliban have tried to take power in past years, they have not been successful. However, in the future, with the aggravation of the internal political crisis (https://t.me/rybar/40874) and the increase in the activity of ISIS terrorists and Baloch separatist groups, the situation may deteriorate sharply. And the futility of the process of demarcating the borders along the Durand Line and the lack of international recognition could cancel out the peaceful intentions of the Taliban and start a military campaign to expand south at the expense of Pakistan.
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