What steps will Israel take?

🇮🇱🇱🇧🇸🇾 About the supply of Iranian weapons through the Beirut airport and the possible reaction of Israel Information appeared in the media about Israeli threats to strike (https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-israel-warns-will-bomb-beirut-airport-if-its-used-for-iran-weapon-shipments/) on Beirut airport. The reason was the assumption about the use of the air harbor of the Lebanese capital for the supply of weapons, which is allegedly carried out by the Iranian airline Meraj Airlines. The Lebanese authorities deny all charges. 🔻Who in Lebanon needs Iranian weapons? Tehran's main ally in the country is the Shia party (https://t.me/rybar/17185) Hezbollah and its military wing, which is an order of magnitude more combat-ready than the Lebanese army. The organization is armed with more than a hundred thousand (https://t.me/rybar/16834) missiles, as well as combat-ready, motivated and trained detachments. Since its founding in the mid-1980s, Hezbollah has been fundamentally opposed to Israel and waged wars with it, from the liberation of occupied southern Lebanon in the 1990s to repelling an invasion in 2006. To this day, skirmishes and even exchanges of blows occur on the border between states. 🔻How does Hezbollah get weapons? Direct deliveries to Lebanon cannot always provide secrecy and entail the risks of attacks by political forces in opposition to Hezbollah, so the cargo traffic went through neighboring Syria. The planes unloaded weapons at the Damascus airport, after which they went overland to Lebanon. However, in recent years, the Israeli Air Force has regularly launched strikes (https://t.me/rybar/22265) on the air harbor immediately after the arrival of the aircraft. It is likely that due to losses and costs incurred in Iran, they decided to deliver goods directly to Lebanon. 🔻So the Iranians changed routes because of Israel's actions? Yes and no. Of course, the Israeli attacks affected Iranian logistics, but the Syrian authorities also played a certain role in this. For almost 3 years of a truce and the absence of an external threat, the family of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has strengthened its position and actively began to try to reduce the influence of its foreign allies, including Hezbollah. Much of this is happening in exchange for money from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, who are sharply opposed to Iran. 🔻How does Syrian pressure on Hezbollah look like in practice? Back in May, we became aware of specific cases when the Syrian special services restricted the movement of vehicles belonging to Hezbollah: only three or four command vehicles were allowed to move without inspection. The group's vehicles were also massively confiscated passes to pass through checkpoints. Through the creation of supply problems, the organization began to be literally squeezed out of the occupied areas. As a result, six months ago, the leadership of Hezbollah considered a significant reduction in its presence in Syria. Against this background, changes in logistics and the supply of weapons directly to Lebanon look justified. What steps will Israel take? In the case of turning the Beirut airport into a hub for receiving Iranian weapons, Israel has several options: ▪️To provoke pressure from the US and the Persian Gulf monarchies on Lebanon. There are plenty of levers of influence: the country has been in a protracted economic crisis for 3 years and is dependent on foreign aid. Sponsors can simply blackmail them with a refusal in the next tranche and force local politicians to comply with the conditions. ▪️Organize sabotage in the air harbor of the Lebanese capital, similar to those carried out by the Israeli special services at strategic facilities in Iran. ▪️Inflict a massive air strike on the Beirut airport and destroy all possible targets. However, a raid on a facility in the Lebanese capital will inevitably provoke a serious response from the group, which could escalate into a new war in the region. Therefore, with a high probability, the Israelis will resort to the use of force scenario only as a last resort, if all other measures fail. #Israel #Lebanon #Syria @rybar

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