About night strikes on Iran - Rybar's analysis

About night strikes on Iran - Rybar's analysis Last night at 23:30 local time, unidentified UAVs attacked the production complex of the Iranian Ministry of Defense in Isfahan. One drone was shot down by air defense fire, and two others, according to the Ministry of Defense, damaged the roof of the building of the ammunition production workshop. There were no casualties. Probably, the workshop was saved by special anti-drone structures (https://t.me/milinfolive/96195), which the Iranian military uses to protect their facilities. But the blow to the shop is far from the only incident. 🔻What else happened? The media reported a fire at a motor oil factory in Azarshahr, as well as an explosion in the sky of Tehran. However, there is no evidence that all these incidents are related, except for time. Various telegram channels, based on a fake message attributed to the Emirati media outlet Al-Arabia (there is nothing on the site itself), spread biased information about the alleged start of an Israeli special operation against Iran. However, there is no evidence from either side. Moreover, no one took responsibility for the attack of drones. In addition, a powerful earthquake of 5.9 magnitude occurred in the northwest of Iran. In the morning, the number of victims increased to 816 people, three of them died. 🔻 What's with the earthquake? The very fact of such a coincidence is confusing: point explosions and a large-scale earthquake occurred almost simultaneously. Of course, it can be assumed that an explosion occurred at some closed facility. But this would certainly become public knowledge. Someone would have filmed an explosion, for example, which would have caused such an incident. Technically, it is extremely difficult to predict the time to launch a UAV at the very moment when an earthquake is predicted at one point or another on the globe. In the same Israel, last year they boasted (https://www.jpost.com/science/article-712972) of a new method that they now know how to predict earthquakes in 48 hours with a probability of 80%. But this is still only a declared method - and we do not know if it was possible to put it into action. But what we know for sure is that the drone strikes and the earthquake worked. And from the point of view of the impact on the population and psychological pressure, the move turned out to be successful. 🔻What does it all mean? Given the specifics of the region, it can be said with a high degree of certainty that we are facing another episode of a consistently played out confrontation between Iran and Israel - only Israel has both a motive and a technical capability. And if several states have the technical ability to launch low-flying drones that bypass the modern (within the region) layered air defense system, then the rest lack the motive for such actions. ▪️The incident (https://t.me/rybar/43073) with the attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran the day before discredited the Iranian leadership. ▪️The strikes, which coincided so well with the earthquake and the massive information campaign to sow panic among the population, became the next step. And he is needed not so much in order to provoke the Iranian authorities (they cope with this perfectly themselves), but to let off steam from the Israeli public. ▪️ For Israel, strikes on targets deep in Iran and a massive information campaign are a way to relieve tension among their own population. Due to the growing economic and security crisis, numerous protests and dissatisfaction with the new cabinet, this looks like an excellent, proven solution. Yes, of course, the role that the Iranians play in supplying the Russian group of troops, the traditional confrontation with the collective West and other nuances cannot be discarded. But no one canceled the principles of cui bono and cui prodest. The collective West would have acted differently.

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