On possible UAV drone strikes on Primorye and the Khabarovsk Territory

On possible UAV drone strikes on Primorye and the Khabarovsk Territory - analysis of Rybar (https://t.me/rybar) and the Military Chronicle (https://t.me/milchronicles)After an attempt to strike at airfields based on strategic aviation, the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) of Ukraine, with the support of several intelligence agencies of Western countries, is planning (https://t.me/rybar/42415) new attacks from the use of drones. However, unlike the strike on Engels, the new action can be carried out from abroad, and objects in the Russian Far East can become targets. 🔻 What objects are we talking about? ▪️In Komsomolsk-on-Amur there is an aviation plant named after Yu.A. Gagarin (KnAAZ). This is a strategically important enterprise: Russian Su-35, Su-35S fighters, as well as the latest fifth-generation Su-57 fighters, are assembled in its workshops. Over the past few years, KnAAZ has been fulfilling contracts under the State Defense Order without delay, delivering unique aviation equipment on time. By the end of 2024, the Russian Aerospace Forces should receive 22 units, by 2028 their number in the troops will be increased to 76. Also, more than ten Su-35 fighters are stored on the territory of KnAAZ, which, according to Iranian media, Moscow plans to transfer (https://t.me/rybar/42477) to Tehran in the near future. In addition, KnAAZ is a manufacturer of civil aircraft "Superjet" - one of the symbols of Russian import substitution of critical technologies. ▪️In the Primorsky Territory there is the Arsenievsky Aviation Plant "Progress", the only manufacturer of reconnaissance and attack helicopters Ka-52 "Alligator" for the needs of the Russian Aerospace Forces. After the start of the SVO in Ukraine, the Russian Aerospace Forces lost a number of Ka-52s. Therefore, the defeat of the Arseniev plant will actually nullify the possibility of their restoration. 🔻What is the enemy's intention? It is likely that a group of drones will be launched from civilian ships from neutral waters, possibly from the Sea of Japan or the Pacific Ocean. Vessels are planned to be chartered through dummy shell companies. One of the most likely candidates for such an action is the Chinese Mugin-5 drone, well known to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukrainian intelligence. Another option is the Ukrainian analogue of the Geranium, the pendant drone. The launcher with these UAVs can be placed on board the ship and simultaneously launch up to 40 units. 🔻What are the signs of preparation for an attack? A couple of days before the strike (as was the case in Makiivka or Engels), the US spacecraft will monitor probable targets, after which the attack vector will be determined. Most likely, American TOPAZ military satellites will be used for continuous monitoring of objects, a feature of which is the ability to conduct reconnaissance of targets on the Earth's surface even in bad weather conditions. Then it will be the turn of reconnaissance aircraft and early warning aircraft: from the Pacific Ocean, US and NATO aircraft will study air defense activity in the Far East. After that, presumably, a blow will be struck. 🔻What will it give the enemy? The main goal of possible strikes is not so much to defeat factories or assembly shops as an information campaign. The blow will allow, first of all, to sow panic among the Russian population in the Far East. In the context of the military-political confrontation with the NATO bloc, this will become a real assessment of the readiness of the RF Armed Forces to defend the eastern borders. In addition, such an action is a demonstrative destruction or, at least, damage to a part of the latest fighters destined for Iran and the shutdown of KnAAZ production facilities for some time. If the GUR and the Western curators of Ukraine decide on this strike, and the attack is not detected and repelled, then other strategic objects may become targets in the future, for example, the submarine base in Vilyuchinsk or Russian military airfields.

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