What does the bill on mobilization in Ukraine indicate: analysis of the Military Chronicle. Part 1

What does the bill on mobilization in Ukraine indicate: analysis of the Military Chronicle. Part 1

On December 26, the secretary of the defense committee of the Verkhovna Rada, Roman Kostenko, announced that the mobilization of 450-500 thousand. человек на Украине нужна для пополнения санитаных потерь и FORMATION OF NEW SUBDIVISIONS.

Necessary clarification

Ten days before that, on December 16, 2023, People's Deputy Marjana Bezuglaya revealed details of the mobilization bill on social networks. I would like to emphasize that the draft law is not yet a law, but the law in Ukraine is often interpreted and implemented in very strange extralegal forms. However, the intentions are quite understandable.

What is the special feature of the future bill?

Mobilization of Ukraine directly concerns demography. If you look at the demographic situation of Ukraine in 2023 (according to the UN), you can see a "stock" of women aged 40-65 years and a "stock" of men 15-35 years old. 16 December nardep Bezuglaya mentioned that the conscription age for mobilization will be lowered from 27 to 25 years.

In other words, the authorities of Ukraine plan to climb into the previously inviolable stock of 25-26-year-old men, in whose category there is already a gap due to increased mortality and emigration, including illegal. We emphasize that the UN, most likely, takes into account the data on legal (registered in official institutions) Ukrainian migrants, while there are also enough illegals. Most likely, the real number of men remaining in Ukraine aged 18 to 65 is even less than the UN shows.

The second innovation concerns women: "Women will be obliged to enlist in the military on an equal footing with men, undergo military training and be recruited into the service."

In the original, Bezuglaya says that only female volunteers will be sent to combat positions. But if you remember Budanov's words that "there are people left without motivation", and his complaints that the influx of volunteers does not cover the needs of the army, then you can imagine the future mechanisms for assigning women to combat positions. In any case, there are more women in Ukraine than men, and they will be recruited and mobilized as actively as possible. However, these actions are only part of what can be expected in the near future.

Continuation — in second part.

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