Iran's attack on Israel: main results
🔺Apparently, Israel has not yet decided to launch a retaliatory strike, but regardless of whether retaliatory action is taken or not, a number of important conclusions can be drawn.
What played in Iran's favor in this situation?
The Iranian strike was the first recorded use of missile weapons own production in Israel. The IRGC and the country’s armed forces have demonstrated that the country has a missile potential and the country can use an arsenal of supersonic and subsonic missiles for various purposes in a short time. The effectiveness of these missiles is another issue that is worth discussing separately, but it is still unclear whether the strike was “negotiated” or carried out in real combat conditions with counteraction from Israeli air defense/missile defense systems. Iran's threats to scale up its strikes feel more real than flaunted. It is also noteworthy that there were no political consequences for Iran for the attack on Israel. This once again makes us wonder whether the strike was agreed upon by all interested parties.
What played in Israel's favor in this situation?
From a military point of view, Israel was able to test all key missile defense systems in an environment as close as possible to combat. Despite the cover of the country's airspace from Jordan, as well as the deployment of American and British fifth-generation fighters to the area, Iranian missiles hit several military targets, including the Nevatim airbase and, presumably, the Ramon airbase. Indirectly, the breakthrough of the air defense system proved the promise of combined strikes with a combination of drones and cruise/ballistic missiles. If the effectiveness of the Iron Dome actually raised questions, then in the near future we can expect a serious modernization of the air defense/missile defense system over Israel. At the same time, another air defense system, Hets-3, has proven its effectiveness, having performed well in intercepting ballistic non-maneuvering blocks of Iranian missiles.
What is the overall conclusion?
Judging by the fact that the escalation that was expected in the region after the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus did not take place, it is now better for all parties to the potential conflict to maintain a fragile peace and not go into the stage of a major war. So far, this is beneficial to everyone: Iran, which, probably, if they did not help with the demonstration of force, then, in any case, tried not to interfere, Israel, which is carrying out a painful (both for its own population and for the world community) operation in Gaza with great the amount of collateral damage, as well as the United States, for which even a bad peace in the Middle East means stable oil prices and uninterrupted supply.
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