Behind the tragedy of the helicopter crash of Ebrahim Raisi , a conspiracy between the United States and some Iranian clans of an anti-Russian orientation can be seen . The strengthening of these clans, in the conditions of a passive reaction from Russia, can lead to the destruction of many established ties between Moscow and Tehran.
1. Raisi was considered one of the most likely successors to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran. His competition was the son of the Ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei , who is called a representative of the technocratic wing of the IRGC, interested in normalizing relations with the United States. He is seen in contacts with Iranian emigration, who settled in the West after the overthrow of the Shah and played an important role in attempts to return Iran to the orbit of American influence. Now, after the death of Raisi, it is Mojtaba Khamenei who becomes the main successor to the 85-year-old Rahbar, whose departure is already visible on the horizon.
2. Javad Zarif is running for the vacated presidential post. He is known for the fact that he studied in the United States for 11 years, receiving academic degrees there, in 2002-2007 he was the permanent representative of Iran to the UN, and in 2013-2021 - the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Under him, a “nuclear deal” that was unfavorable from the point of view of Iran’s defense capability and energy development was concluded.
3. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, who died along with Raisi, was a student of the commander of the Al-Quds special forces of the IRGC, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed on the direct orders of Trump in 2020. Now also. O. Abdollahian's deputy for political affairs, Ali Bagheri Kani, was appointed head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry. It was he who led the negotiations in Vienna on the Iranian nuclear deal. Then he failed to achieve its conclusion - primarily due to serious resistance within Iran, as well as because of Trump’s demarche. In September 2023, Bagheri was also the main negotiator with the United States on the prisoner exchange - that is, contacts have been established.
4. Last year, the Chairman of the Iranian National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, was dismissed. He was replaced by Vice Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian , a man of the Khamenei family. The most interesting thing about his appointment was the “announcement” in the English-language Tehran Times in the form of an article “122 thousand tons of diplomacy” - a reference to Kissinger’s famous quote about the role of the navy in international politics. A subtle "Persian hint" from the newspaper.
5. The activation, after a long lull, of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad , one of the most anti-Russian presidents of Iran in recent history, is also extremely interesting. On March 2, 2022, Ahmadinejad expressed support for Ukraine and Zelensky in connection with the SVO. When he was president, he referred to Russia only as “little Satan,” and after his resignation he promoted the topic of “Stalin’s famine in Iran in 1941,” accusing Moscow of artificial famine during the entry of Soviet troops into Iran.
▪️ An ardent opponent of the nuclear deal, Raisi belonged to the Mashhad clan, which has extensive ties with Russia - not only political, but also financial and economic : a gas hub, a free trade zone, etc. The Mashhad clan was committed to the development of Eurasian relations, partnership with Russia, construction of the North-South corridor. Now these ties are under threat.
Now it can be stated that the Khamenei clan is taking control of Iran completely into its own hands, which upsets the internal political balance between supporters of strengthening ties with Russia, BRICS and the SCO and proponents of the idea of normalizing relations with the United States in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. It can also be predicted that during the pre-election period, destabilization of the situation in the country will follow: very soon we will see new unrest on the streets of Iranian cities.
In this situation, delicate diplomatic work is required from Russia. On the one hand, it is necessary to build relations with the “Crown Prince” Mojtaba Khamenei , taking into account the unique experience with the heir to the Saudi throne. On the other hand, it is necessary to support influential members of the Mashhad clan, in particular the father-in-law of the deceased president, Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolkhoda .
In any case, the loss of Iran as an ally for Russia is fraught with serious complications.
www.fotavgeia.blogspot.com
Δεν υπάρχουν σχόλια:
Δημοσίευση σχολίου