🔺Ukrainian troops have been bringing reinforcements and personnel closer to the areas where fighting is taking place for several weeks. Taking into account the fact that the “northern” group is standing in its positions and is not going to leave, there is a high probability that the fierceness and density of the fighting in this direction could repeat last year’s “Rabotino meat grinder.” It is most correct to compare what is happening with this operation and, perhaps, partially with the Artyomovsk and Avdeevsk operations.
What could be the intention of the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
The strategic plan of the offensive may be to recapture the territory occupied by the “northerns” during the offensive. We are talking primarily about Volchansk and the surrounding areas - Staritsa, Ternovaya, Vesyoloye, Glubokoye - with a total area of about 120-150 square meters. km. The main blow, presumably, can be delivered in the Liptsy area (20 km from Kharkov), where the Ukrainian army has been digging in for several weeks and actually exchanging infantry personnel for the time necessary to prepare for the attack. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that it is possible to deliver one or more diversionary strikes with a “running start” of 5-15 km from the main one.
What risks exist for the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
Firstly, the “northern” are not only moving to Volchansk, but are also gradually deploying additional support forces. Since June 5, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have recorded a significant increase in the number of arrivals of adjustable air bombs, with the help of which the Russian Armed Forces are actively striking not only the rear, but also forward targets, including dugouts and field fortifications. In addition, the artillery and infantry of the “northerners” are actively digging into the ground, apparently taking into account the experience gained from last year’s offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Donetsk and Zaporozhye. The assault on Russian fortifications near Volchansk and Liptsy, taking into account the activity of the artillery of the RF Armed Forces, for the Ukrainian Armed Forces may turn out to be even more difficult than last year’s attack on the “Surovikin Line” near Rabotino at the cost of several (in some cases elite) brigades.
Secondly, in the event of a failure of the offensive or a tactical success that does not mean anything from an operational point of view, the Armed Forces of Ukraine risk finding themselves in a semi-cauldron with reserves pulled forward, as was already the case in Artyomovsk, Soledar, Avdeevka, Rabotina. If this is exactly what happens, then to release this grouping it will be necessary to attract additional forces, which, like the brigades and battalions already located near Volchansk and Liptsy, will have to be removed from other fronts.
Thirdly, the quality of personnel, predominantly consisting of Ukrainians mobilized in the TrO, has dropped significantly since the beginning of general mobilization. It is noteworthy that for many reasons (including the lack of motivation, equipment and activity of the Russian Armed Forces), the lifespan of the mobilized Armed Forces of Ukraine near Volchansk is almost equal to the lifespan of Ukrainian army units near Artyomovsk and on average ranges from 12 to 30 hours when they are on the front line ( mark "zero"). The lack of results in such units may force the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to again throw regular brigades into battle, the condition of which, after several weeks of bloody battles, can no longer be called satisfactory.
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