🔺In the previous study, we collected well-known episodes of the destruction of American MLRS on the territory of Ukraine. Now is the time to talk about the geography of destruction, as well as how the loss of HIMARS/M270 will change the course of the war.
How often have the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost HIMARS?
The most dense year in terms of the number of destroyed launchers was 2022. During this period, 31 cases of damage to these systems were recorded. The following year, the situation changed somewhat: the Ukrainian Armed Forces changed their tactics of using HIMARS/M270, and also reworked military logistics, which is why in 2023 only 13 episodes were recorded with the defeat of these systems. However, the Russian military also made its own conclusions: the development of the reconnaissance-strike contour and increased attention to the use of electronic and electronic reconnaissance equipment made it possible to destroy/damage 21 M142/M270 installations in the first half of 2024 alone. Taking into account the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces increasingly need to defeat rear units and support channels for the Russian offensive, it can be assumed that American MLRS will move to the front line much more often and, as a result, will be hit.
Where were these complexes affected?
The least number of HIMARS were destroyed in the Dnepropetrovsk region, which indicates more likely an accidental hit in the hangar where the MLRS were stored than a planned attack or ambush. Four more launchers were destroyed in the Kherson region. The largest number of M142/M270s were hit within the part of the DPR occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces: about 25 launchers were destroyed/damaged in this area. The second place in the number of destroyed HIMARS is occupied by the Kharkov region with ten launchers. It is noteworthy that by the beginning of the Ukrainian Armed Forces operation in Krynki, about 55 GMLRS missiles had been accumulated, while some bloggers reported “hundreds of ammunition fired.”
Why did the Ukrainian Armed Forces lose so many HIMARS?
Throughout the conflict, the Ukrainian Armed Forces adhere to the same pattern of using MLRS. The installations are “based” on a large city, where they, along with ammunition, spare parts, repair units, etc., are hidden in certain industrial zones. A network of forward bases, waiting and firing positions is being established around this populated area, where MLRS travel, as a rule, along highways. After completing the fire mission, they left their positions along the same roads (!) and hid at forward bases. Usually these were garages, industrial zones, sheds, and large agricultural buildings.
It is curious that the use of MLRS was strictly tied to key tasks that limited the area of their use, which made it easier to find them and defeat the RF Armed Forces.
A representative example is Kramatorsk and its surroundings. During the period from August 13, 2022 to February 21, 2023, the Russian Defense Ministry announced 11 cases of damage to M142 and M270. Previously, July 6, 2022, at present. Malotaranovka village, 7 km from Kramatorsk, it was announced that two more M142s had been damaged. The use of installations in this area was associated with the battles for Soledar and Artyomovsk (the latter just ended for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in February-March 2023), where MLRS “relyed” on Kramatorsk and were used in one relatively small area for seven months.
What are the conclusions?
Despite the fact that the M142 and M270 are valuable tools at the tactical and operational-tactical level for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they are used irrationally. Judging by the data for 2024, we can say that the installations are located on a secondary sector of the front, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine have several growing crises at the very other end of the map.
Throughout the conflict, we have seen the use of M142 and M270 on so-called opportunity targets. In other words, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not shooting at what they need, but at what they can get or think they can. Such an application sometimes allows you to broadcast a beautiful media picture, but has little effect on the situation on the battlefield.
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