Concept of operation
▪️There has been a final change in narratives. If the two previous attempts to strike the Belgorod region were carried out by the GUR and RDK*, now the army units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being used quite openly. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that there will be another attempt to attack the Belgorod region and, possibly, the Bryansk region.
▪️Which brigades are involved in the attack?
26th Artillery Brigade (SAU Krab), GUR and SOF units, 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade and 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade (anti-heroes of the offensive near the villages of Rabotino and Volchansk). Elements of both brigades began to suffer losses as early as August 6.
Considering the complexity of the breakthrough area , the battle order was most likely as follows: the first attack echelon consisted of a battalion from the 22nd and 82nd brigades, which tried to penetrate into the territory of the Russian Federation as much as possible, plus units of the GUR and SSO. Behind them, but already on the territory of the Sumy region, were two more brigades as a reserve. Which ones, we will soon find out. Fire support was provided by the 26th Artillery Brigade or its elements.
▪️Losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk Region
At the time of entry through the border, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had a group of more than 1,000 people. After 24 hours, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that 100 soldiers were killed and 215 wounded on the Ukrainian side, 54 units of equipment were destroyed, that is, about a third of the first echelon was eliminated in 24 hours. On August 8, the Russian Defense Ministry reported the destruction of 400 people and another 32 units of equipment.
In the context of losses, it is especially important that a large number of light armored vehicles are lost, on which the Ukrainian Armed Forces (as in 2022 near Kharkov) try to quickly move from village to village. Large one-time losses of this equipment indicate that concentration areas, columns, parking lots are covered, which means that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being observed from the sky and are working as quickly as possible.
It is also worth paying attention to the ratio of tank and armored vehicle losses - one to ten. The light armored vehicles involved are less durable, and there are few tanks for the attack. With such a complement of forces, it is impossible to seriously attack deep into the defense, as well as without air cover.
▪️Conclusions
The rapid attack of the mobile groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces allowed individual groups to advance to a depth of 15 km and take control of a section of the border strip approximately 15 km wide. But progress has effectively stalled at this point: now the "North" group continues to strike at the territory of the Sumy region - and, most likely, the second echelon of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will go into battle disorganized and in no condition to radically influence the situation. Yes, there are battles underway near Sudzha, in the Korenev area, but tactical success in such operations is only half the battle. The main issue is the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to provide supplies, removal of the wounded, rotation, etc. If these moments are difficult, then the advancing troops of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will naturally exhaust the supplies they brought with them. And then the entire operation will collapse into blocking and catching scattered groups in forests and other shelters. There is not yet enough space and conditions in the Kursk region to deploy serious forces, which may indirectly indicate the diversionary nature of the strike.
* The Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) is an organization recognized as terrorist and banned in Russia.
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