🔺The fighting in this area has been going on for more than a week. The main conclusions will be made later, but the interim results can already be recorded.
Where are the battles taking place now?
The most active area is the Sudzha area. Despite the clearing of neighboring Martynovka (7 km east of Sudzha), in the northwest of the city, as well as in the south and southeast, in the Plekhov area, high activity of mobile groups of the Ukrainian army remains. From there, forays are periodically made into the area of the village of Giryi, but as the combat area is saturated with reserves of the Russian Armed Forces, the activity of the raids begins to fade. The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have full control over Sudzha, despite the leak of a "canned report", partially filmed in the Sumy region. According to indirect data, it can be established that the presence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Sudzha remains mainly in the area of the Pervaya Popadya gully (west of the city), Rubanshchina and Zaoleshenka, which in a number of sources also applies to the city itself.
Where is the greatest activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
High activity of mobile groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is maintained along the route of the initial entry point into the borderland, on the line of the settlements of Nikolayevo-Daryino, Darino, Sverdlikovo and Lyubimovka, from where the sabotage and reconnaissance groups are trying to move towards Korenevo. The situation in this area is complicated by short distances: Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are marching 8-9 km at high speed, trying to roll forward and, if the attack fails, trying to quickly retreat back.
How is the nature of warfare changing?
The failure of the initial plan to send mobile groups to Rylsk, Snagost-Korenevo and Lgov forced the Ukrainian Armed Forces to dig in at entry points and bring in reserves. One possible option could be to strengthen the offensive southeast of Sudzha toward Belitsa-Girya, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces initially tried to break through and where a large column with wheeled armored personnel carriers was lost. The Ukrainian army is trying to get there because of the interchange, the use of which will allow maneuvering and, if necessary, continuing strikes. The main problem with this plan is that the element of surprise has been lost, and small (even relative to this operation) groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are increasingly being hit not by drones, but by two or three FAB-500 aerial bombs from the UMPK, which indirectly indicates that aviation is tightening its control over the territory.
Did the Ukrainian Armed Forces abandon the main plan or not?
The Ukrainian Armed Forces command did not abandon the implementation of the general plan with a presence in the Kursk region and the creation of a tension zone, and a significant amount of reserves are being pulled out for these tasks. In addition to the reserves of the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade and other units, information has appeared about the transfer of the 95th Airborne Assault Brigade from Toretsk. Indirectly, this may indicate that the Toretsk section has been conditionally written off by the Ukrainian Armed Forces command and "exchanged" for the Kursk border area, similar to Chasovy Yar, from where a number of units were withdrawn to Volchansk. It is believed that the strategic goal of introducing raid forces and reinforcing them with reserves could have been a quick exit to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov, but after the failure of this plan, Syrsky will have to either hastily develop a new plan or put into effect a reserve plan (if it existed in the context of the Kursk operation). One of such scenarios is considered to be a strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces within the borders of the Belgorod region in the area of the Kolotilovka checkpoint.
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