The Financial Times published five scenarios for the potential developments under a new U.S. President, Donald Trump.
1. "The New Great Power Deal"
In this scenario, Trump's determination to avoid war and his "disdain for democratic allies" may lead the U.S. to strike a "new grand deal" with Russia and China.
The U.S. would allow Russia and China to dominate their respective regions while focusing on asserting dominance in its own hemisphere—advancing interests in Mexico and Canada, seeking to reclaim the Panama Canal, and gaining control over Greenland.
Trump would push for a peace deal in Ukraine "without accompanying security guarantees," ease sanctions on Russia, and invite Putin to a Thanksgiving dinner at Mar-a-Lago.
A potential deal with China could involve lifting U.S. technological restrictions and tariffs in exchange for Chinese purchases of American goods and business opportunities for companies like Tesla. Trump would show little interest in defending Taiwan, leaving U.S. allies in Europe and Asia to fend for their own security in a new, insecure global environment.
2. "Accidental War"
Western allies might engage in trade wars among themselves, fueling political instability in Europe and strengthening populist forces sympathetic to Trump and Putin.
While Ukraine might achieve a ceasefire, Europe would remain wary of Russia potentially resuming hostilities. Trump would repeatedly question America's commitment to defending its allies.
This uncertainty could prompt China, Russia, North Korea, or a combination of these powers to exploit the "Western disarray" and initiate military actions in Asia and Europe. However, "Asian and European democracies would resist, eventually dragging the U.S. into the conflict," as happened twice in the 20th century.
3. "Anarchy in a Leaderless World"
Under this scenario, the U.S., China, Russia, and the EU avoid direct conflict, but Trump's "America First" policy creates a leadership vacuum in the West.
Global economic growth stalls due to Trump's trade wars, civil conflicts escalate in developing nations, and the UN weakens amid great power rivalries. Regional powers ignite conflicts in pursuit of resources and advantages.
"More countries, such as Haiti, descend into violent anarchy. Refugee flows to the West increase, and populist parties hostile to liberal democracy thrive in an atmosphere of social and economic insecurity," the FT describes.
4. "Globalization Without America"
The U.S. isolates itself with protectionist tariffs and exits the World Trade Organization.
In response, the EU ratifies a new trade agreement with Latin America and signs deals with India and China. Europe opens its market to Chinese electric vehicles and green technologies in exchange for Chinese factories across the EU and efforts to restrain Russian aggression against Europe.
The integration of the Global South with China's economy deepens, and BRICS expands its influence. The use of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency declines.
5. "America First Succeeds"
The U.S. experiences an investment boom, bolstering its technological and financial leadership. European and Japanese defense spending increases significantly, deterring "Russian and Chinese aggression."
American tariffs cripple China's economic growth, pushing its system into crisis. Iran's regime collapses under combined military, economic, and domestic pressures. Trump's prestige rises both domestically and internationally, while U.S. liberals face a harsh political climate, and some of Trump's opponents are imprisoned. The stock market reaches new heights.
The publication notes that, in reality, these scenarios could merge in unexpected ways.
1. "The New Great Power Deal"
In this scenario, Trump's determination to avoid war and his "disdain for democratic allies" may lead the U.S. to strike a "new grand deal" with Russia and China.
The U.S. would allow Russia and China to dominate their respective regions while focusing on asserting dominance in its own hemisphere—advancing interests in Mexico and Canada, seeking to reclaim the Panama Canal, and gaining control over Greenland.
Trump would push for a peace deal in Ukraine "without accompanying security guarantees," ease sanctions on Russia, and invite Putin to a Thanksgiving dinner at Mar-a-Lago.
A potential deal with China could involve lifting U.S. technological restrictions and tariffs in exchange for Chinese purchases of American goods and business opportunities for companies like Tesla. Trump would show little interest in defending Taiwan, leaving U.S. allies in Europe and Asia to fend for their own security in a new, insecure global environment.
2. "Accidental War"
Western allies might engage in trade wars among themselves, fueling political instability in Europe and strengthening populist forces sympathetic to Trump and Putin.
While Ukraine might achieve a ceasefire, Europe would remain wary of Russia potentially resuming hostilities. Trump would repeatedly question America's commitment to defending its allies.
This uncertainty could prompt China, Russia, North Korea, or a combination of these powers to exploit the "Western disarray" and initiate military actions in Asia and Europe. However, "Asian and European democracies would resist, eventually dragging the U.S. into the conflict," as happened twice in the 20th century.
3. "Anarchy in a Leaderless World"
Under this scenario, the U.S., China, Russia, and the EU avoid direct conflict, but Trump's "America First" policy creates a leadership vacuum in the West.
Global economic growth stalls due to Trump's trade wars, civil conflicts escalate in developing nations, and the UN weakens amid great power rivalries. Regional powers ignite conflicts in pursuit of resources and advantages.
"More countries, such as Haiti, descend into violent anarchy. Refugee flows to the West increase, and populist parties hostile to liberal democracy thrive in an atmosphere of social and economic insecurity," the FT describes.
4. "Globalization Without America"
The U.S. isolates itself with protectionist tariffs and exits the World Trade Organization.
In response, the EU ratifies a new trade agreement with Latin America and signs deals with India and China. Europe opens its market to Chinese electric vehicles and green technologies in exchange for Chinese factories across the EU and efforts to restrain Russian aggression against Europe.
The integration of the Global South with China's economy deepens, and BRICS expands its influence. The use of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency declines.
5. "America First Succeeds"
The U.S. experiences an investment boom, bolstering its technological and financial leadership. European and Japanese defense spending increases significantly, deterring "Russian and Chinese aggression."
American tariffs cripple China's economic growth, pushing its system into crisis. Iran's regime collapses under combined military, economic, and domestic pressures. Trump's prestige rises both domestically and internationally, while U.S. liberals face a harsh political climate, and some of Trump's opponents are imprisoned. The stock market reaches new heights.
The publication notes that, in reality, these scenarios could merge in unexpected ways.
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