Summary: The world in 2050 Key findings

Αrt2516 Τριτη 28 Φεβρουαρίου 2017
1. Summary: The world in 2050 Key findings

1. We project that the world economy could more than double in size by 2050, assuming broadly growthfriendly policies (including no sustained long-term retreat into protectionism) and no major global civilisation-threatening catastrophes. 

2. Emerging markets will continue to be the growth engine of the global economy. By 2050, the E7 economies could have increased their share of world GDP from around 35% to almost 50%. China could be the largest economy in the world, accounting for around 20% of world GDP in 2050, with India in second place and
Indonesia in fourth place (based on GDP at PPPs).

 3. A number of other emerging markets will also take centre stage – Mexico could be larger than the UK and Germany by 2050 in PPP terms and six of the seven largest economies in the world could be emerging markets by that time. 

4. Meanwhile, the EU27 share of world GDP could be down to less than 10% by 2050, smaller than India. 

5. We project Vietnam, India and Bangladesh to be three of the world’s fastest growing economies over this period. UK growth has the potential to outpace the average rate in the EU27 after the transitional impact of Brexit has passed, although we project the fastest growing large EU economy to be Poland. 

6. Today’s advanced economies will continue to have higher average incomes, but emerging economies should make good progress towards closing this gap by 2050.

 This will open up great opportunities for businesses prepared to make long-term investments in these markets. But this will require patience to ride out the storms we have seen recently in economies like, for example, Brazil, Nigeria and Turkey, all of which still have considerable long-term economic potential based on our analysis. 

7. To realise this growth potential, emerging market governments need to implement structural reforms to improve macroeconomic stability, diversify their economies away from undue reliance on natural resources (where this is currently the case), and develop more effective political and legal institutions. 

8. 1.1 Our approach In this report, we present our latest long-term economic growth projections, providing an update to our 2015 results. We project GDP to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, which together currently account for around 85% of global GDP. We hope this analysis will be of interest to policymakers around the world, businesses making long-term investments, academics, students and economic commentators. 

These long-term growth projections will also feed into other PwC projects and reports. Our analysis uses a robust long-term economic growth model from the academic literature that accounts in a rigorous way for projected trends in demographics, capital investment, education levels and technological progress to estimate potential long-term growth rates. We assume broadly growth-friendly (but not perfect) policies and no major civilisation-threatening global catastrophes (e.g. nuclear war, asteroid collisions) over the period to 2050. Technical details of our methodology are contained in Appendix A of the full report.

We are aiming to identify broad long-term trends, abstracting from short-term economic and political cycles. We are not claiming to be able to make precise forecasts of GDP in 2050, which is clearly not possible looking that far ahead, but we do believe it is possible to trace out the broad shape of economic power shifts over this period. We have also looked at the impact of a range of alternative assumptions on our long-term growth projections (see Section 2.4 of the full report).' 

 World in 2050 – Summary report The long view: how will the global economic order change by 2050? PwC''

 Our modelling projections are summarised in this short report and set out in more detail in our full report, which also includes:  commentaries on five emerging markets (China, Nigeria, Colombia, Turkey and Poland) from PwC senior economists or partners in these countries;  interviews with three leading academics - Professor Marvin Zonis, Professor Branko Milanovic and Professor Michael Jacobides – on the uncertainties around our projections, the challenge of income inequality, the need for institutional reform and the implications of our analysis for business strategy; and  summaries of a range of other PwC research and case study analysis to draw out the implications of the long-term global economic trends we project for public policy and business. 1.2 GDP projections to 2050 Global economic growth will be driven by emerging market economies, which will gradually increase their share of world GDP over time We project that the world economy will roughly double in size by 2042, growing at an annual average rate of around 2.6% between 2016 and 2050. 

We expect this growth to be driven larely by emerging market and developing countries, with the E7 economies of Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey growing at an annual average rate of almost 3.5% over the next 34 years, compared to just 1.6% for the advanced G7 nations of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US. We will continue to see the shift in global economic power away from established advanced economies, especially those in Europe, towards emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere.

 As shown in Figure 1, the E7 could comprise almost 50% of world GDP by 2050, while the G7’s share declines to only just over 20%.

  Pwc World in 2050 Summary Report Feb 2017 by Chatzianagnostou George on Scribd

www.fotavgeia.blogspot.com