Impact of Turkey’s YES or NO on Assad, ISIS and PKK
Campaigning for Turkey's referendum on constitutional amendments (Photo: HRW)
Millions of Turks will cast their votes on Sunday to choose between the current parliamentarian system and the presidential system. If voters decide to adopt the constitutional amendment, the symbolic presidency and the prime minister post will be abolished and an American-like presidential system will be in effect in 2019. Whatever the result of the referendum be, the current Syria policy’s red lines will be preserved but will surely push Turkey to a new dimension.
Two weeks before the referendum, Ankara announced that the cross-border Euphrates Shield Operation successfully ended. Later, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made it clear that only the first phase of the offensive was ended and that the country would shortly have some surprises for terror groups in Syria and Iraq, namely PKK and ISIS.
Not only the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), DHKP-C, but also the PKK and its affiliates in Syria are propagating for the NO camp of the referendum in Turkey. Many of its leaders hiding in the mountainous regions of northern Iraq have publicly called people to vote against the constitutional change. But why?
To put the answer into its simplest term, such a system change will almost end the bureaucratic and administrative hurdles and those governing the country will have an effective abilities to achieve goals. Thus, waking up to a morning in which the country had adopted a strong governing system will be the last thing the PKK’s Syrian wing, PYD, would want to see. Since being in a difficult situation already − for being forced to choose between its allies, U.S. and the Assad regime − the terror group knows that the Turkish leadership can open up a front at territories under PYD’s control. In such a scenario, Ankara will also have stronger position in dealing with American objection and the Russian influence in Syria.
However, it is worthy to note that in case of the referendum being resulted in a negative way for the Turkish leadership, Ankara would still hold the PYD card in its hand and take unprecedented actions. With a loss at home and strong objection by the international players in Syria, such move could harm Turkey itself. At the same time, the PYD would also suffer a heavy blow. This means that no matter what the results may be, the terror group would suffer from the result of Turkish referendum.
Since the result of the referendum is going to have an enormous effect on the country’s foreign policy, Ankara knows that whatever the stakes be it has to stay in the game in Syria. The Assad regime, PKK, ISIS and all those hostile to Turkey and its policies would dance for hours if the constitutional change gets rejected. Just like the celebrations held by Assad supporters in Damascus on the early hours of FETÖ coup attempt in Turkey last July.
If the country adopts the new presidential system, the administrative effects would not be there for the next two years but the morale would be boosted and Ankara could say "Our nation has decided". Such an event would be nothing but catastrophic for the Assad regime and the PYD.
U.S. President Donald Trump, could point his other elbow to the PYD this time like he had done to the Kremlin. Washington also knows that they have been diverted from the Raqqa operation for the past two years by the PYD. Despite all the military support, the terror group has not achieved what the U.S. had expected from it. Turkey’s continuous calls for PYD-less Raqqa operation may also get a positive response too.
Taking President Erdoğan’s words into account, I am looking forward to see the surprises after the referendum. Terrorist organizations will be upset.
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Mehmet Solmaz is the Brussels correspondent for Daily Sabah
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