🇮🇷 On the possible participation of Iran in the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenian activist Mika Badalyan writes (https://t.me/mikayelbad/20940) that the only possible solution to the Artsakh conflict is a full-fledged war with the support of Iran.
In his opinion, Iranian rhetoric regarding Nagorno-Karabakh has changed in recent months. The recent speech of the Armenian political scientist Zhanna Vardanyan on the Iranian federal TV channel "Du" (شبکه دو) caused a furore in the Azerbaijani media segment and confirms the change of position towards the conflict in Tehran.
🔻 Why is this important?
Iran is a country with a strict political and religious order, where the activities of state television channels and the media are strictly regulated with a common state position on a particular issue.
The speech of the Armenian expert saying that Karabakh has always belonged to Armenia, as well as accusations against the Azerbaijani authorities of conducting an Armenian-phobic policy of genocide, would not have been aired without the consent of the government television and radio company Voice of the Islamic Republic.
🔻What influenced the decision of the Iranian authorities regarding the change of position on the Karabakh issue?
In previous years, Iranian and Azerbaijani mutual threats did not cross borders and were limited to a clear line that both sides observed, but now the situation is different.
The governments of both countries have already conducted exercises (https://t.me/rybar/41804) simulating military operations with each other with the crossing of the Araks River and the use of all types of troops in a full-scale war.
The very active participation of the authorities in Baku in inciting separatist sentiments in the northwestern part of Iran and statements about the need to reunite "South" and "Northern" Azerbaijan gave rise to just fears among the leadership of the Islamic Republic.
After the resolution of the Karabakh issue, the Aliyev administration, with the support of Turkey, can easily start rocking (https://t.me/rybar/40658) an inter-ethnic crisis in Iran. This scenario forced the leadership in Tehran to act symmetrically.
Iranian special services have begun to work on the thesis of unification (https://t.me/rybar/40658) of the historical Iranian territories of Nakhichevan and Ancient Talyshstan. Telegram has created dozens of similar channels supporting the secession of the current Azerbaijani lands.
▪️ And the well-established interaction with Russia in various fields, including military-technical, economic, trade, allows us to hope for some support from the Russian Federation in this matter, even despite employment in Ukraine.
🔻Despite the mutual unwillingness and unpreparedness for a full-fledged war with each other, the Iranian leadership may simply have no other option left to protect their interests.
The forceful resolution of the conflict in Karabakh in favor of Azerbaijan will create the prospect of encircling the troubled northwestern part of Iran by hostile Turkic countries and separatists from Iraqi Kurdistan.
Therefore, now the government of the Islamic Republic by all means demonstrates its full readiness to defend the interests of the state, putting pressure on the Aliyev administration with statements and belongings of Karabakh, including creating alliances (https://t.me/rybar/42053) with other political forces and teaching (https ://t.me/rybar/41887) of Armenian servicemen.
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