On terrorist activity in Afghanistan and Pakistan Part 4 - Is there a chance for a peaceful settlement?

On terrorist activity in Afghanistan and Pakistan Part 4 - Is there a chance for a peaceful settlement? Unfortunately, the option of a peaceful settlement is now practically unrealizable. The demands of the TPP in the negotiations are completely contrary to Pakistani statehood. The militants themselves have already created a parallel government, electing heads of departments, leaders and "shadow governors" in the provinces. The group itself increases its combat potential. Recent attacks on police checkpoints have been carried out at night with NATO-made thermal and night vision goggles. And the victory of the “brothers” from Afghanistan strengthened the belief in the possibility of eliminating the current system and creating the “Islamic Emirate of Pakistan” in the future. 🔻What about the Afghan Taliban? The Taliban leadership is likely not to provide direct support to Pakistani forces due to guaranteed negative repercussions and potential division within the movement. At the same time, in the border areas with Pakistan, there is an increase. According to supposedly leaked documents from the Taliban Ministry of Defense, in the border districts of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, there are three training camps for IS fighters with a total number of up to 7,000 people who intend to cross the border in Logar, Paktia, Nuristan and Logar. Such a figure raises serious doubts, given that the territories are either under the control of government forces or the TTP. Several thousand terrorists would not have gone unnoticed there. The transfer of people to the border can be associated both with strengthening control over the territory in case of a possible Pakistani special operation, or with eliminating unwanted people under the pretext of fighting terrorism. 🔻Who benefits from the war scenario? The cross-border operation of the Pakistan Armed Forces in Afghanistan in the event of a direct clash with the TTP or the Taliban will cause total destabilization and degradation of the situation in the region. ▪️The obvious beneficiary of this scenario will be the terrorist organization IS "Vilayat Khorasan", whose ranks will be replenished by disgruntled radicals from both sides. And the employment of the Pakistani and Afghan authorities in border events will allow them to freely strengthen their positions both in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where an offshoot of the Afghan branch "Vilayat Pakistan" is currently operating. ▪️However, the main beneficiary will be the United States and Western countries interested in destabilizing the situation in South and Central Asia. The strengthening of ISIS in the region will create a direct threat to the stability of the countries of the post-Soviet space, where the US government is actively trying to push through military bases. In addition, the operation of the Pakistan Armed Forces against the TTP will not go unanswered by the militants, including the Baloch separatist groups that have made an alliance with the Tehrik-e Taliban. The activity of extremist groups in Balochistan is a direct danger to the troubled Iranian province of Sistan and Balochistan, as well as China's interests in the region. It is through the province of Balochistan to the port of Gwadar that the main transit corridor of the project "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (https://t.me/rybar/34202)" passes. The significant influence of the Chinese in Pakistan and the prospect of creating a route around the Taiwan Strait will seriously strengthen the position (https://t.me/rybar/34423) of the Celestial Empire in world markets. Also, instability in Pakistan will create the necessary degree of tension along the Indian borders, especially in the contested Kashmir zone, which will hit India, which pursues an independent policy, cooperating with Russia. 🔻For this reason, the White House supports the initiative of the Pakistani command. An operation involving Afghan lands will create prerequisites for a total destabilization of the situation in the region, which plays into the hands of the collective West. The tactic of artificial pressure makes it possible to weaken the possibilities of the countries that are the objects of Anglo-Saxon politics and push through their own interests. Internal political conflicts in Syria (https://t.me/rybar/42648), Yemen (https://t.me/rybar/42581) and Iraq have been implemented in a similar way.
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