On terrorist activity in Afghanistan and Pakistan
Part 3 - Future Perspectives
The planned counter-terrorist operation of the Pakistan Armed Forces is at the final stage of preparation. Three meetings of the country's National Security Committee have already been held in Islamabad and Rawalpindi.
At the moment, the active phase of large-scale attacks on the militants' locations has been postponed. The Pakistani government is trying to persuade the current authorities in Afghanistan to assist in the fight against the TPP. 🔻Currently, there is pressure on the Taliban by creating economic problems and blocking Afghan products in Pakistan. In particular, Afghan merchants and farmers cannot export goods through the ports of Gwadar and Karachi. In addition, the Pakistani security forces carried out several raids in various cities of the country against migrants from Afghanistan. A significant part of them were accused of collaborating with extremists and imprisoned or expelled from Pakistan. However, Kabul does not intend to support the Pakistani troops because of the guaranteed negative consequences due to such actions. At the same time, more than 800 people were deployed to the border areas with Pakistan. 🔻 What are the prospects? A limited operation only in the territory of Pakistan will not lead to the desired result. The main infrastructure of the TTP is located in the provinces of Kunar, Nangarhar, Logar and Paktia in Afghanistan. Therefore, the authorities in Islamabad essentially have no choice but to hit the militants in Afghanistan. Trying to avoid this, the country's leadership is trying to convince the Taliban to keep their promises, but this is futile, since the Taliban itself is in a stalemate. 🔻 Why? ➖In the event of airstrikes on Afghan soil, most of the Taliban members will demand an immediate response to the actions of Pakistani troops. The military campaign will actually deprive the Taliban of the only ally with which economic cooperation has been developed. Most of the goods produced or grown in Afghanistan go through Pakistan. It is with the authorities of Islamabad that coal and other resources are traded. And against the backdrop of the fact that the United States supported Pakistan's possible strikes on Afghanistan, direct military action will lead to even greater isolation of the "Islamic Emirate" on the world stage and sever contacts with neighbors. This will lead to a deepening of the internal political, economic, humanitarian crisis and further destabilization of the situation in the region as a result. ➖Supporting the actions of the Pakistani Armed Forces or inaction will cause disagreement with the rank and file members of the movement and field commanders. Especially from the "Kandahar" Taliban junta, most of which harbors a special hatred for their neighbors. This can lead to divisions and clashes within the Taliban camp, disillusionment with the leadership due to the undermining of ideological principles, and a massive transition of the Taliban into the ranks of the Tehrik-e Taliban or, even worse, Wilayat Khorasan. ➖At the same time, the inaction of the leadership of Pakistan and the rejection of the cross-border operation only temporarily stabilizes the situation in the north-west of the country. Such a delay will give the militants even more time to strengthen their positions and prepare for the active phase of hostilities.
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At the moment, the active phase of large-scale attacks on the militants' locations has been postponed. The Pakistani government is trying to persuade the current authorities in Afghanistan to assist in the fight against the TPP. 🔻Currently, there is pressure on the Taliban by creating economic problems and blocking Afghan products in Pakistan. In particular, Afghan merchants and farmers cannot export goods through the ports of Gwadar and Karachi. In addition, the Pakistani security forces carried out several raids in various cities of the country against migrants from Afghanistan. A significant part of them were accused of collaborating with extremists and imprisoned or expelled from Pakistan. However, Kabul does not intend to support the Pakistani troops because of the guaranteed negative consequences due to such actions. At the same time, more than 800 people were deployed to the border areas with Pakistan. 🔻 What are the prospects? A limited operation only in the territory of Pakistan will not lead to the desired result. The main infrastructure of the TTP is located in the provinces of Kunar, Nangarhar, Logar and Paktia in Afghanistan. Therefore, the authorities in Islamabad essentially have no choice but to hit the militants in Afghanistan. Trying to avoid this, the country's leadership is trying to convince the Taliban to keep their promises, but this is futile, since the Taliban itself is in a stalemate. 🔻 Why? ➖In the event of airstrikes on Afghan soil, most of the Taliban members will demand an immediate response to the actions of Pakistani troops. The military campaign will actually deprive the Taliban of the only ally with which economic cooperation has been developed. Most of the goods produced or grown in Afghanistan go through Pakistan. It is with the authorities of Islamabad that coal and other resources are traded. And against the backdrop of the fact that the United States supported Pakistan's possible strikes on Afghanistan, direct military action will lead to even greater isolation of the "Islamic Emirate" on the world stage and sever contacts with neighbors. This will lead to a deepening of the internal political, economic, humanitarian crisis and further destabilization of the situation in the region as a result. ➖Supporting the actions of the Pakistani Armed Forces or inaction will cause disagreement with the rank and file members of the movement and field commanders. Especially from the "Kandahar" Taliban junta, most of which harbors a special hatred for their neighbors. This can lead to divisions and clashes within the Taliban camp, disillusionment with the leadership due to the undermining of ideological principles, and a massive transition of the Taliban into the ranks of the Tehrik-e Taliban or, even worse, Wilayat Khorasan. ➖At the same time, the inaction of the leadership of Pakistan and the rejection of the cross-border operation only temporarily stabilizes the situation in the north-west of the country. Such a delay will give the militants even more time to strengthen their positions and prepare for the active phase of hostilities.
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