On terrorist activity in Afghanistan and Pakistan
Part 2 - What's going on in Afghanistan?
The new threat to Pakistani statehood from the Tehreek-e Taliban has largely emerged from Pakistan's foreign strategy towards the Taliban.
The authorities in Islamabad have supported the Taliban movement for more than 20 years, providing the necessary assistance in the fight against the NATO contingent and the government of the Afghan Republic.
With the arrival of the Islamic Emirate in Pakistan, in return, they hoped for the help of the Taliban in the fight against the Pakistani Taliban movement and the solution of the long-standing territorial issue on the disputed Durand Line. However, the Afghan Taliban not only failed to fulfill their promises, but actually assisted the TTP in the "new-old jihad" - now against Pakistan. At the same time, the Taliban could not get rid of internal threats in Afghanistan. 🔻Who is the main threat to Taliban power in Kabul? In the summer and early autumn, the Taliban faced potential threats to their ranks. Among them were militants of the IS “Vilayat Khorasan” and more than a dozen (https://t.me/rybar/37813) groups, including the “National Resistance Front” (FNSA) of Ahmad Massoud. Now the threat of resistance has disappeared by itself due to the lack of a united front to counter the Taliban and its external support, as well as the general failure of the leaders of these groups. Therefore, at the moment, the main opponent of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan are members of the Afghan branch of the IG "Vilayat Khorasan" (IGVH). The IGVK militants were not only able to continue their activities with the arrival of the Taliban, but also seriously strengthen their position in the country. 🔻The grouping is still active (https://t.me/rybar/36277) through sleeper cells across the country. There is a strong presence of terrorists in the southeastern provinces, where the main forces of the IGVK are concentrated. However, there are not enough numbers to conduct a military campaign against the Taliban. In the northern regions of Afghanistan, there is a network of underground groups that carry out sabotage on the positions of the Taliban and actively recruit and promote in the ranks of the IGVKh among representatives of ethnic minorities and citizens of the republics of the post-Soviet space. And the position of IGVK is becoming stronger. Since November alone, there have been more than 20 attacks and terrorist attacks in various parts of the country. Moreover, some of them were directed against the diplomatic missions of foreign states. The increased dynamics of the activity of the "Islamic State" can be traced both in the number and quality of the attacks carried out: just over 30 attacks in the first half of the year and almost 50 in the second half of 2022. At the same time, the ISIS press service reported 181 attacks and 1,188 killed in the entire year. 🔻What are the Taliban doing? Now the Taliban do not show any ability to fight other extremist elements in Afghanistan. Allegedly ongoing counter-terrorism operations are mostly sham, with ISIS militants hitting important "heavily guarded" Taliban targets time after time. And if earlier extremists struck only at the Taliban themselves, then after the terrorist attack near the Russian embassy, attacks on foreign missions have already become regular, and faith in the Taliban and their ability to ensure security has become less and less every time. At the same time, the Taliban do not at all prevent the presence of other terrorist organizations in Afghanistan - Al-Qaeda, the TTP and the Islamic Party of Turkestan. By doing this, they de facto refuse to fulfill their main obligation to the international community to combat terrorism. 🔻At the moment, there are no prospects for improving the situation in Afghanistan. The growing activity of the ISIS, the worsening humanitarian situation, the lack of qualified managers and specialists, and international isolation contribute to further destabilization. Pakistan has been one of the few allies that has provided assistance to the Taliban. However, regular skirmishes at the border and unwillingness to fight the TTP can put an end to further relations.(Τροποποιήθηκε)Επαναφορά αρχικής
www.fotavgeia.blogspot.com
With the arrival of the Islamic Emirate in Pakistan, in return, they hoped for the help of the Taliban in the fight against the Pakistani Taliban movement and the solution of the long-standing territorial issue on the disputed Durand Line. However, the Afghan Taliban not only failed to fulfill their promises, but actually assisted the TTP in the "new-old jihad" - now against Pakistan. At the same time, the Taliban could not get rid of internal threats in Afghanistan. 🔻Who is the main threat to Taliban power in Kabul? In the summer and early autumn, the Taliban faced potential threats to their ranks. Among them were militants of the IS “Vilayat Khorasan” and more than a dozen (https://t.me/rybar/37813) groups, including the “National Resistance Front” (FNSA) of Ahmad Massoud. Now the threat of resistance has disappeared by itself due to the lack of a united front to counter the Taliban and its external support, as well as the general failure of the leaders of these groups. Therefore, at the moment, the main opponent of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan are members of the Afghan branch of the IG "Vilayat Khorasan" (IGVH). The IGVK militants were not only able to continue their activities with the arrival of the Taliban, but also seriously strengthen their position in the country. 🔻The grouping is still active (https://t.me/rybar/36277) through sleeper cells across the country. There is a strong presence of terrorists in the southeastern provinces, where the main forces of the IGVK are concentrated. However, there are not enough numbers to conduct a military campaign against the Taliban. In the northern regions of Afghanistan, there is a network of underground groups that carry out sabotage on the positions of the Taliban and actively recruit and promote in the ranks of the IGVKh among representatives of ethnic minorities and citizens of the republics of the post-Soviet space. And the position of IGVK is becoming stronger. Since November alone, there have been more than 20 attacks and terrorist attacks in various parts of the country. Moreover, some of them were directed against the diplomatic missions of foreign states. The increased dynamics of the activity of the "Islamic State" can be traced both in the number and quality of the attacks carried out: just over 30 attacks in the first half of the year and almost 50 in the second half of 2022. At the same time, the ISIS press service reported 181 attacks and 1,188 killed in the entire year. 🔻What are the Taliban doing? Now the Taliban do not show any ability to fight other extremist elements in Afghanistan. Allegedly ongoing counter-terrorism operations are mostly sham, with ISIS militants hitting important "heavily guarded" Taliban targets time after time. And if earlier extremists struck only at the Taliban themselves, then after the terrorist attack near the Russian embassy, attacks on foreign missions have already become regular, and faith in the Taliban and their ability to ensure security has become less and less every time. At the same time, the Taliban do not at all prevent the presence of other terrorist organizations in Afghanistan - Al-Qaeda, the TTP and the Islamic Party of Turkestan. By doing this, they de facto refuse to fulfill their main obligation to the international community to combat terrorism. 🔻At the moment, there are no prospects for improving the situation in Afghanistan. The growing activity of the ISIS, the worsening humanitarian situation, the lack of qualified managers and specialists, and international isolation contribute to further destabilization. Pakistan has been one of the few allies that has provided assistance to the Taliban. However, regular skirmishes at the border and unwillingness to fight the TTP can put an end to further relations.(Τροποποιήθηκε)Επαναφορά αρχικής
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