On the formation of new formations in the Armed Forces of Ukraine - Rybar's analysis
(https://t.me/rybar) It's no secret that now the Ukrainian authorities are intensively mobilizing citizens across the country, taking into the ranks of the armed forces all who are able to somehow hold a weapon.
And if earlier this process concerned only Ukrainians in the central or eastern part of Ukraine, and only partially to the inhabitants of the West, now the situation is different. In the Ternopil region alone, they want to call up about 60,000 people.
🔻What is it for?
Ukrainian formations are suffering huge losses in manpower in various directions. In Bakhmut and Soledar, the number of dead and wounded goes to tens of thousands of people (not in the last month, but since last summer). More than 20 different formations have already taken part in the battles in this sector. By the beginning of spring, the authorities in Kyiv need to create combat-ready units consisting of two army corps to conduct a spring offensive campaign. The countries of the collective West agreed on a new package of military assistance: it would be strange if the sponsors did not demand practical results. 🔻What is happening now? On the territory of various training grounds of Ukraine, 22 new formations are being actively formed as part of various units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two more are at the planning stage, and seven others are restoring combat capability due to losses incurred in the battles near Bakhmut. The terms for the training of the newly created mechanized and assault brigades are very modest: as part of the joint commands, the personnel should be ready by March 1 of this year, and those included in 9 (47 and 67 ombr) and 10 (115, 116, 117 and 118 ombr, as well as 48 oabr) army corps - by March 31. By spring, Ukraine is expected to receive a significant part of wheeled armored vehicles for mechanized brigades (for example, American and German infantry fighting vehicles "Bradley" and "Marder"). Part of the equipment is already in Poland. The only formation whose readiness date has been postponed until December 1, 2023 is the 5th tank brigade, consisting of 9 AK. This date is due to the preparations for the transfer of modern battle tanks to NATO - only in the second half of the year will the basis of heavy armored vehicles be delivered. 🔻Perspectives Taking into account the approximate strength of the brigade in the Armed Forces of Ukraine at 4,000, the recruited manpower reserve will exceed 100,000 people. At the moment, the pace and nature of forced mobilization indicate a serious shortage of new formations. But even if the required number of people are recruited, it will be extremely problematic to train all mobilized people in the operation and use of high-tech weapons and military equipment in such a period of time - especially with an urgent need to close gaps in certain areas. ▪️At the same time, the task of the Ukrainian authorities is to prepare a shock fist that is superior in both manpower and technique, which will be used to attack in several directions. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have repeatedly used the tactic of flooding the front line with corpses, which helped create problems for the RF Armed Forces in the Kherson and Kharkov regions. And for this purpose, an active conscription and mobilization of citizens of pre-retirement and retirement ages, including former employees of law enforcement agencies, began to be created in the structure of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the NG of Ukraine. Over the weekend, it was announced the creation of eight new assault brigades in the National Guard, the police and the State Border Service of Ukraine. These formations will be sent to the front line. ❗️While the "cannon fodder" will keep the defense and win time, the "elite" formations of the 9th and 10th army corps will undergo intensive training under the full control of NATO instructors. But the timing of the formation of elite units clearly hints at the presence of direct plans to prolong the conflict as much as possible. And the pace of mobilization is about the desire to completely use up the human resource of Ukraine.
www.fotavgeia.blogspot.com
Ukrainian formations are suffering huge losses in manpower in various directions. In Bakhmut and Soledar, the number of dead and wounded goes to tens of thousands of people (not in the last month, but since last summer). More than 20 different formations have already taken part in the battles in this sector. By the beginning of spring, the authorities in Kyiv need to create combat-ready units consisting of two army corps to conduct a spring offensive campaign. The countries of the collective West agreed on a new package of military assistance: it would be strange if the sponsors did not demand practical results. 🔻What is happening now? On the territory of various training grounds of Ukraine, 22 new formations are being actively formed as part of various units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two more are at the planning stage, and seven others are restoring combat capability due to losses incurred in the battles near Bakhmut. The terms for the training of the newly created mechanized and assault brigades are very modest: as part of the joint commands, the personnel should be ready by March 1 of this year, and those included in 9 (47 and 67 ombr) and 10 (115, 116, 117 and 118 ombr, as well as 48 oabr) army corps - by March 31. By spring, Ukraine is expected to receive a significant part of wheeled armored vehicles for mechanized brigades (for example, American and German infantry fighting vehicles "Bradley" and "Marder"). Part of the equipment is already in Poland. The only formation whose readiness date has been postponed until December 1, 2023 is the 5th tank brigade, consisting of 9 AK. This date is due to the preparations for the transfer of modern battle tanks to NATO - only in the second half of the year will the basis of heavy armored vehicles be delivered. 🔻Perspectives Taking into account the approximate strength of the brigade in the Armed Forces of Ukraine at 4,000, the recruited manpower reserve will exceed 100,000 people. At the moment, the pace and nature of forced mobilization indicate a serious shortage of new formations. But even if the required number of people are recruited, it will be extremely problematic to train all mobilized people in the operation and use of high-tech weapons and military equipment in such a period of time - especially with an urgent need to close gaps in certain areas. ▪️At the same time, the task of the Ukrainian authorities is to prepare a shock fist that is superior in both manpower and technique, which will be used to attack in several directions. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have repeatedly used the tactic of flooding the front line with corpses, which helped create problems for the RF Armed Forces in the Kherson and Kharkov regions. And for this purpose, an active conscription and mobilization of citizens of pre-retirement and retirement ages, including former employees of law enforcement agencies, began to be created in the structure of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the NG of Ukraine. Over the weekend, it was announced the creation of eight new assault brigades in the National Guard, the police and the State Border Service of Ukraine. These formations will be sent to the front line. ❗️While the "cannon fodder" will keep the defense and win time, the "elite" formations of the 9th and 10th army corps will undergo intensive training under the full control of NATO instructors. But the timing of the formation of elite units clearly hints at the presence of direct plans to prolong the conflict as much as possible. And the pace of mobilization is about the desire to completely use up the human resource of Ukraine.
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