On the secret talks between the Taliban and the Pakistani authorities Part 2 - Perspectives

On the secret talks between the Taliban and the Pakistani authorities Part 2 - Perspectives Over the past six months, there has been an increase in the number of killings of members of the Tehrik-e Taliban or TTP-affiliated groups under various circumstances in Afghanistan. Since August last year, there have been at least 16 such incidents. The Taliban did not provide any details and more or less understandable explanations for what happened. These events, even after the death of one of the leaders of the TTP, Omar Khorasani in August (https://t.me/rybar/37105), caused disagreements between the Taliban and the TTP (https://t.me/rybar/37960). TTP extremists have taken to social media to accuse some members of the Afghan Taliban of colluding with Pakistan and sharing the location of TTP fighters in Afghanistan. Some have said that the Taliban are behind the scenes assisting the Americans in finding terrorists, as was the case with the assassination of the head of al-Qaeda (https://t.me/rybar/36515) Ayman al-Zawahiri. 🔻Is it possible? The Taliban have always been an object of interest to other states, primarily the United States. The Taliban participated in the battles with the Soviet troops in Afghanistan in the Mujahideen detachments, and after that they acted as a catalyst for a constant threat near the borders of Iran, India, China and the post-Soviet republics. And over the years of the Taliban's struggle with government forces, in fact, nothing has changed. The Taliban played the role of watchdogs necessary to maintain the desired degree of tension in the Central Asian region. Even their coming to power in Afghanistan became possible only after the Americans decided to withdraw the contingent, leaving the incapacitated government of Ashraf Ghani face to face with a more prepared enemy. Subsequently, this led to a total collapse of the leadership. Therefore, cooperation between the Taliban and the West is very likely. The fact that the Taliban furiously blame the United States for all the troubles and deny ties with them means absolutely nothing - the Taliban only supports the legend in order to prevent a split in their ranks. The Americans benefited from the coming of the Taliban to power, since with their arrival a hotbed of instability was formed, projected onto the region. At the same time, the inability of the Taliban to govern the country led to further destabilization of the situation, which is extremely beneficial to the United States in the long run. 🔻But why are the Taliban acting in isolation? In the ranks of the Taliban, since coming to power, a split has been brewing between various juntas led by Haibatullah Akhundzada, Mullah Baradar, Muhammad Yakub and Sirajuddin Haqqani. Each of them pursues its own goals and acts separately from the others. 🔻So what do the Taliban want? The Taliban currently want recognition of the legitimacy of their power. But to achieve this goal, they must look back at the principles and ideology underlying the Taliban - cooperation with "sworn enemies" can be perceived negatively by ordinary Taliban. This will create the preconditions for a deepening of the split or a mass transfer of militants to the ranks of ISIS and other groups. The official position of the Taliban on the TPP and Pakistan essentially does not reflect the real state of affairs in any way - the Taliban needs Pakistan and trade with it, and it is simply unprofitable for them to quarrel with one of the few real allies in a difficult economic situation. 🔻Perspectives Mutually beneficial agreements are the most attractive option for both parties. A Pakistani military operation in Afghanistan without a response from the Taliban will raise legitimate questions about Taliban complicity, and the reaction is fraught with unpredictable consequences. The lack of unity in governing the country puts an end to the prospects for reaching a compromise. The Taliban are a bunch of disparate tribes and clans, each of which pursues its own interests. The Pakistani government, in turn, does not demonstrate any skills for competent diplomacy. The only option to achieve the goal is the mediation of a stronger player in the face of the Anglo-Saxons, who absolutely do not need and are not profitable.
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