n the secret talks between the Taliban and the Pakistani authorities
Part 1 - What were the Taliban and Pakistanis talking about?
The other day, the press service of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorist organization announced the start of the previously announced spring campaign against government forces in Pakistan.
🔻What is the point?
On February 22-23, social networks affiliated with the TTP began to circulate a video with the alleged transition of the militants of the group from Afghan territory to Pakistani territory. Members of the TTP shouted words about the upcoming fight with the government to establish the "Law of Allah" in Pakistan. The "spring offensive" has in fact become a regular practice for extremists in the region. Even the Afghan Taliban annually in the spring resumed active hostilities against the authorities in Kabul after a winter break. Pakistani brethren of the Taliban have also adopted a similar tactic, last year they also went on the offensive in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. At the same time, there are no major changes and a sharp increase in the number of attacks so far. TTP terrorists continue to attack Pakistani army and security posts with small forces with no visible signs of a full-scale campaign. 🔻What are the authorities doing? In Islamabad, they fear the intensification of militants in the west and southwest of Pakistan, since neither the leadership nor the armed forces are simply not ready to fight the extremists of the Tehrik-e Taliban due to the difficult economic situation and TTP support from the Taliban. On February 23, a high-ranking delegation headed by Defense Minister Khawaja Asif and Pakistani Chief of Inter-Services Intelligence Nadim Anjum arrived in Kabul to negotiate with the current leadership of Afghanistan. The Taliban were attended by First Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Foreign Minister Amir Khan Motakki and intelligence chief Mullah Abdul Haq Wasik. The main topic of the meeting was the discussion of the activity of TTP militants in Pakistan and their support by the Taliban. Nothing is known for certain about the outcome of the talks, but a Taliban delegation is expected to return to Islamabad. 🔻 What are the prospects? According to data leaked to the network, the Taliban offered the option of disarming the members of the TTP and resettling them in the central parts of Afghanistan at the expense of funding from the Pakistani government, but these statements were denied in Kabul. At the same time, a delegation from Pakistan threatened the Taliban with ending all kinds of ties and blocking trade routes from Afghanistan to Gwadar. ▪️From the point of view of the capabilities of the Pakistani government and the deepening internal political and economic crisis, such a scenario is the most favorable for Pakistan, since conducting a counter-terrorist operation without covering Afghan territory is pointless, and there are no forces and means for implementation. The authorities in Kabul also benefit from this option in the face of the growing prospect of recognition of the Taliban government on the world stage. Several countries have already provided embassy buildings for Taliban diplomats, raising the likelihood of further legitimization of the Islamic Emirate. The denial by the Taliban's press office is not surprising - since coming to power, the Taliban has maintained a policy of denying everything that can play against them on the domestic or foreign arena. 🔻At the same time, the Taliban itself does not have any unified approach to resolving contradictions with Pakistan. In the highest ranks of the Taliban, a split is more and more clearly visible: some accuse the authorities in Islamabad of strikes on Afghan territory and providing airspace to the Americans, while others, on the contrary, talk about collusion between the Taliban and the Pakistanis. High resolution map
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On February 22-23, social networks affiliated with the TTP began to circulate a video with the alleged transition of the militants of the group from Afghan territory to Pakistani territory. Members of the TTP shouted words about the upcoming fight with the government to establish the "Law of Allah" in Pakistan. The "spring offensive" has in fact become a regular practice for extremists in the region. Even the Afghan Taliban annually in the spring resumed active hostilities against the authorities in Kabul after a winter break. Pakistani brethren of the Taliban have also adopted a similar tactic, last year they also went on the offensive in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. At the same time, there are no major changes and a sharp increase in the number of attacks so far. TTP terrorists continue to attack Pakistani army and security posts with small forces with no visible signs of a full-scale campaign. 🔻What are the authorities doing? In Islamabad, they fear the intensification of militants in the west and southwest of Pakistan, since neither the leadership nor the armed forces are simply not ready to fight the extremists of the Tehrik-e Taliban due to the difficult economic situation and TTP support from the Taliban. On February 23, a high-ranking delegation headed by Defense Minister Khawaja Asif and Pakistani Chief of Inter-Services Intelligence Nadim Anjum arrived in Kabul to negotiate with the current leadership of Afghanistan. The Taliban were attended by First Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Foreign Minister Amir Khan Motakki and intelligence chief Mullah Abdul Haq Wasik. The main topic of the meeting was the discussion of the activity of TTP militants in Pakistan and their support by the Taliban. Nothing is known for certain about the outcome of the talks, but a Taliban delegation is expected to return to Islamabad. 🔻 What are the prospects? According to data leaked to the network, the Taliban offered the option of disarming the members of the TTP and resettling them in the central parts of Afghanistan at the expense of funding from the Pakistani government, but these statements were denied in Kabul. At the same time, a delegation from Pakistan threatened the Taliban with ending all kinds of ties and blocking trade routes from Afghanistan to Gwadar. ▪️From the point of view of the capabilities of the Pakistani government and the deepening internal political and economic crisis, such a scenario is the most favorable for Pakistan, since conducting a counter-terrorist operation without covering Afghan territory is pointless, and there are no forces and means for implementation. The authorities in Kabul also benefit from this option in the face of the growing prospect of recognition of the Taliban government on the world stage. Several countries have already provided embassy buildings for Taliban diplomats, raising the likelihood of further legitimization of the Islamic Emirate. The denial by the Taliban's press office is not surprising - since coming to power, the Taliban has maintained a policy of denying everything that can play against them on the domestic or foreign arena. 🔻At the same time, the Taliban itself does not have any unified approach to resolving contradictions with Pakistan. In the highest ranks of the Taliban, a split is more and more clearly visible: some accuse the authorities in Islamabad of strikes on Afghan territory and providing airspace to the Americans, while others, on the contrary, talk about collusion between the Taliban and the Pakistanis. High resolution map
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