THE COUNTRY OF LIES - Ukraine
In the last year or so, we have seen how Ukraine has tried to fight Russian troops with the end-goal of returning the territory as it was before the SMO. In their desire to achieve this, we’ve seen constantly how they would send hordes of soldiers to attack settlements, towns, and cities. The epicentre of the battle, Artemvsk (who some call Bakhmut) has been great proof of the Ukrainian tactical strategies.
Artemvsk, besides being the epicentre of the battlefield, has also been weaponized and used as a weapon for the information war, so lets better deconstruct the numbers so that Slavyangrad readers would understand what has really been happening at the fronts, which shall give a far better perspective at what has been happening in Ukraine.
Russia began the SMO with around 200,000 soldiers, which is the size of an attacking force created to gain territory with the only means of achieving a politically-resolved situation, which was what Putin wanted in the first place. Still, due to the shortage of soldiers, the “counter-attacks” (which in reality were just Russian retreats) from Kherson and Kharkov were “successful.” Here I’m stressing a lot on the fact that these were not counter-attacks since, for example, Russia retreated in a very organized way from Kherson. As of Kharkov, only a few thousand Russians (which were not even soldiers) were defending, and the force that Ukraine sent there was just enough to make those forces retreat. So, nothing special happened in reality. These were not Ukrainian successes, but rather temporary political “boosters” to “convince” western powers to keep sending weapons to Ukraine. Other than that, those “counter-offensives” meant nothing. The Ukrainians now are just temporarily holding those territories.
Anyways, as for those 200,000 Russian soldiers on the battlefield, Ukrainian media (more specifically, the Kiev “Independent”) has claimed that the AFU have neutralized over 177,110 soldiers. Meaning that Russia now has on the front-lines over 22,890 forces. Considering a hypothetical scenario where we count an (inflated) amount of 70,000 volunteers, we would be looking around at 92,890 Russian soldiers on the ground.
Questions arise now, right? How can 92,890 Russian soldiers hold an entire front-line of that scale?
Well, it’s not about the reserves. Only a fraction of the reserves was deployed to the front-lines already, and still, that wouldn’t be enough to hold the ground and continue an offensive as Russia does. So this whole Western estimation of Russian losses is way more than just being “delusional,” these numbers probably come from a crackhead, to be honest. Anyone who has not tried to do the math might find it extremely easy to just follow up the narrative and believe that Russia is losing way more soldiers than Ukraine does, considering that Ukraine had an initial force of 700,000 soldiers. Russian forces are experiencing losses, too, but not to the extent Ukrainian sources and “intelligence” suggest. Far below what they are proposing, actuall
Based on my previous paragraph, Russia is doing an extremely well job, since they began with 200k soldiers against 700k, and Ukraine is now forcibly trying to kidnap people at gun-point and send them to the front-lines - a forced mobilization. Russia so far has only announced ONE wave of mobilization (which was also PARTIAL), and still is performing relatively well in terms of gaining ground. Still, it’s not about “gaining ground” for Russia, it’s about a war of attrition. President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin has explicitly stated the goals of the SMO, and one of those involved the demilitarization of Ukraine, and that’s what’s happening now, and we are seeing that objective materialize. Ukraine now can only launch a few thousand artillery rounds (max 5k in a good day), while Russia fires up to +20k per day. Don’t forget that Ukraine is receiving western shells, meaning that if they keep firing such a low amount, it means that they’re running out of equipment, and so does the west. Russia is not only achieving the demilitarization of Ukraine, but also the demilitarization of the West.
What about the “super-mega counter-offensive” of Ukraine?
Well, this is where it gets interesting. The so-hyped ukrainian “counter-offensive” Ukraine is screaming and telling everyone about is pure PR. Ukraine might try something, but this would be the last attempt they would make, since this time, they’re risking it all. Ukraine is forcing people to get mobilised, they’re not getting enough western military aid (and the one they receive is getting stolen), and their troops are highly demoralized, especially when they’ve been forcibly mobilized. They know how bad it is.
This last counter-offensive they will attempt to make is possibly what Russia has been expecting to happen since months, and probably is part of the plan (this is speculation), but it seems plausible since Ukraine has no other alternative to convince Western powers to continue the supply of weapons, especially when they don’t have any more.
Where will this “counter-offensive” take place?
Definitely not Artemvsk (Bakhmut), and neither the north. This counter-offensive is aimed at Crimea. This is what they’ve been looking forward to do. All these articles claiming that it is directed towards Artemvsk are absolute BS. Why? Months ago, the FT published an interview with Aluzhny and Elensky, and in that same interview, Aluzhny clearly stated a counter-offensive towards melitopol, which is basically in the South. So this counter-offensive goes to the south.
I’m not basing my analysis only on this interview, we also have the example of them recently stating “Withdraw, or we will take Crimea.“ Which is another clue.
Still, I cannot stress enough on how important this counter-offensive is for Ukraine, as it IS the event that will define the fate of the country. If the counter-offensive fails, troops will once and for all lose all motivation, lose tons of manpower, equipment, and ammunition. Only afterwards, Russia will be able to launch a major offensive to finally take what it wants to take. Despite all the speculation, we don’t know where will Russia stop. Does Russia only want NovoRossiya? Or Russia wants all of Ukraine? That’s up for us to speculate, and for the time to show.
Its important to consider that Ukraine has not launched any real counter-offensive, therefore they’ve not really experienced what Russia is capable of doing to repel such a large force, but as any military expert would comment - defending is easier than attacking, and Russia has had, and is still having the time to fortify the southern front. It won’t be easy for Ukraine, and I am 99.99% sure that this counter offensive will fail, and miserably. Elensky knows it, Aluzhny knows it, the US knows it, and Russia knows it.
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