The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may stop due to a shortage of commanders: details
The main forces of the Ukrainian army have not yet entered the battle, however, the formations involved in the operations are already feeling the "vacuum of command", which began to appear a few weeks ago.
What happens with the attack?
A significant part of the reserve units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including those trained according to the standards of the US Army, make gross mistakes on the battlefield, which is why the troops suffer heavy losses. According to the Military Chronicle, in the area of the Vremevsky ledge, near Novodonetsk, as well as in the Orekhovsky and Pologovsky directions, Ukrainian units were to operate using the tactics of maneuver groups, the leadership and management of which was entrusted to senior officers - majors, lieutenant colonels and colonels, including trained in the USA and NATO countries. However, attacks on the rear and headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine led to the death of several dozen senior officers, which led to the disorganization of command and control.
What did it lead to?
On June 5, near Novodarovka and Levadny in the South-Donetsk direction, part of the 37th Separate Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered heavy losses. In the same place, when trying to use reinforcements, a significant part of the units of the 23rd and 31st mechanized brigades was destroyed. Note that all these formations were formed in January 2023 and, apparently, were preparing for the offensive that began on June 4.
According to the Military Chronicle, these units operated under the leadership of new commanders appointed to the post two weeks before the active phase of the offensive.
It is noteworthy that the appointments coincided with a wave of liquidation of the senior command staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: from the end of May to mid-June, several high-ranking officers of the Ukrainian army were destroyed near the direction of the main attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The list of the dead includes Colonel Vladimir Samitsky from the 123rd Territorial Defense Brigade, Chief of Staff, First Deputy Commander of the Brigade Artillery Group of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant Colonel Sergei Lut, Commander of the Special Forces Battalion of the 108th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, Major Sergei Gulevsky , as well as lieutenant colonel of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine Yaroslav Sokorinsky and other high-ranking officers, including the commander of the 23rd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andriy Shmelev.
What will happen next?
The shortage of experienced officers significantly reduced the effectiveness of the actions of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine involved in the offensive. First of all, command controllability and interaction between formations and combat arms suffer from the lack of such commanders. As a result, formations are forced to operate in small groups (mainly company tactical groups). Inexperienced officers or deputies who have been hastily appointed to replace retired officers do not establish interaction with their neighbors and do not use fire support in a timely manner.
It is noticeable that the newly appointed commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were unable to correctly assess the situation in their area and timely use the advantages of the forces and means at their disposal. Also, due to lack of experience, they often underestimated the capabilities of the RF Armed Forces and ignored (perhaps due to lack of time) the basic elements of combined arms combat, reconnaissance and engineering reconnaissance of the area, and much more.
What is the result?
Over time, negative effects will accumulate - both due to new losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and due to the weakness of the system for training officers for the Ukrainian armed formations. The quality of command and, consequently, the combat effectiveness of units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in all areas with such commanders will continue to decline, which will inevitably lead to new losses.
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