Hamas right now claims 40,000 reasonably well-armed and well-trained fighters in a city of 2 million.
First rule of thumb: all else being equal, you generally need a 3:1 numerical advantage to attack successfully. While the IDF has an extremely steep advantage in firepower, the Palestinians have had over a decade to dig in, and the Israelis would be attacking into a growing rubble pile. As anyone familiar with the Battle of Monte Cassino (or the much more recent Battle of Mosul) would tell you, rubble can be just as good to fight from as intact buildings and will interfere with the effective use of armored vehicles. Thus, the IDF will need to mass some 120,000 troops to defeat Hamas et al and occupy Gaza.
Second rule of thumb: to conduct intensive counterinsurgency operations, you need a 1:20 ratio of security personnel to local inhabitants. There are some two million people living in Gaza, suggesting that an occupation army of 100,000 will be required into at least the medium term to pacify the city and root out insurgents - of which there will be many, because the local population hates the Israelis to an extent we have difficulty comprehending in the West.
The IDF's regular strength in peacetime is 165,000 troops. So it can be readily seen that this mission would require doubling the standing strength of the IDF out of reserves and keeping it there for a period of years, likely after a grueling urban battle that could easily inflict more combat casualties on the IDF than it has suffered in every war it has been involved in since independence combined. Or to put it another way, devoting 1.5% of the Jewish and Druze population of Israel to counterinsurgency duty in Gaza for an indefinite period.
No wonder Netanyahu keeps pushing off the invasion. Even if they win the battle it's a recipe for disaster.
Pictured: Israeli Merkava tanks sporting early-war style cope cages. Who's laughing now?www.fota
vgeia.blogspot.com
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