Since the beginning of 2024, Ukrainian officialdom and a number of Western experts have started talking about the possibility of a new offensive. However, the possibilities for such an event should be assessed as realistically as possible.
When are the Ukrainian Armed Forces planning a new offensive?
Deadlines vary. In most cases, offensive plans are projected for 2025. However, in early February, in an interview with The Telegraph, the head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirill Budanov, said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could repeat the offensive attempt this spring.
Is it possible?
This spring, definitely not. Both Western and Ukrainian observers agree that during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, more than 70% of all losses were due to artillery fire. It is this branch of the military that was and remains the main source of firepower, and in the case of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the only one. Consequently, for successful defensive and offensive actions, Kyiv requires shells.
Do they exist?
The current state of affairs is this. Since the end of November last year, the United States, the main supplier of artillery ammunition for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, has been out of the game for a long time or permanently. Supplies from the USA have practically stopped. In theory, military production in Europe should have started by this time. But it didn't work. The plan for the production and delivery of 1 million 155-mm artillery shells to Kyiv, approved in March 2023, was also not implemented.
As of August 2023, 223.8 thousand shells were delivered , by mid-November another 76.2 thousand had been scraped together, thus bringing the total amount to 300 thousand. By December 6, the amount of European deliveries had increased to 480 thousand. And finally, On February 1, 2024, opening a meeting of the Council of Europe, Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU would supply “520 thousand artillery shells by March.” And by the end of the year this volume will more than double.
Thus, approximately 50% of the promised quantity will be delivered on time.
Given the daily requirement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during active operations is 6-7 thousand shells, they need about 186-210 artillery shells per month. Moreover, this quantity was characterized as insufficient back in January 2023.
There are no other significant sources of artillery shells at the moment. The prospects for an offensive not supported by artillery fire are difficult to assess, but it is doubtful that it will be even minimally successful.
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