Πέμπτη 4 Απριλίου 2024

How might the offensive of Russian troops on Chasov Yar develop ?

How might the offensive of Russian troops on Chasov Yar develop ?

🔺To date, the city is a powerful fortified area, although the quality and depth of the fortifications are inferior to the defensive structures in the Avdeevka area, where they have been built since 2014. The construction of fortifications in this area began in July-August 2022. During the battle for Artyomovsk, the city was used as a transport hub, on which the logistics of the entire Ukrainian Armed Forces group in the Artyomovsk-Soledar region relied, but now the situation is different.


Geography

Unlike Artyomovsk, Chasov Yar is located on a hill and has complex boundaries. From north to south it is crossed by the Seversky Donets - Donbass canal and the O-0506 highway. From east to west, Chasov Yar is crossed by the O-0506 highway, which then turns north, and a railway line with a bridge over the canal. Also within the city there are several large forests and many reservoirs. The buildings are predominantly low-rise with a large private sector, but in Chasovoy Yar there are several industrial zones and large enterprises (in particular, the Chasovoyarsky fire-resistant plant) with permanent buildings suitable for equipping shelters or fortifications. To the north of the city are the settlements of Bogdanovka and Kalinovka, which are part of the Chasovoyarsk urban community.

Tactical situation

The main direction of attack of the Russian Armed Forces is the eastern and northeastern outskirts of the Canal area from the industrial zone and the Chasovoyarsky repair plant. The Kanal district is located in the northern part of the city and is the only district located on the left bank of the Seversky Donets - Donbass canal and is probably not the main one for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (just as it was during the assault on Artyomovsk). The goal of the Russian troops at this stage of the operation may be to capture the area where the Seversky Donets - Donbass canal runs underground and crossing it does not require the use of engineering equipment and the creation of crossings, which will become a bottleneck complicating the transfer of forces and the target of counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

It should be emphasized that a significant part of the field fortifications of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including in the area of neighboring Kalinovka, is equipped on the right bank of the canal. And although the canal is currently drained, it is nevertheless a natural obstacle that can hamper the advance of the Russian Armed Forces troops.

If the crossing of the canal in the Kalinovka area will be carried out parallel to the entrance to the eastern outskirts of Chasov Yar, then this will allow:

🔴 occupy commanding heights in the area of the Severny mine;

🔴 concentrate and secretly move forces in the forest;

🔴 develop an attack on the city from north to south to the Chasov Yar railway station, bypassing and blocking the Chasovoyarsky refractory plant.

At the moment, the assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces were able to establish control over the Valyanovka railway station and the Popovsky forest, as well as occupy several strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine just 700-800 m east of the Kanal area, from where the further assault on the city will likely develop.

It is noteworthy that the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces assembled for the defense of Chasov Yar are many times smaller than the garrison of Artyomovsk and Avdeevka, which suggests that there is a backup plan with abandonment of the city in the event of critical damage to military units. However, the strategic location of the city and its proximity to Slavyansk/Kramatorsk may force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to transfer additional reinforcements.

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