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Italian defense minister Guido Crossetto
Written by Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert
The so-called Ukrainian “counteroffensive” in 2023 was an absolute failure. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers died on the battlefield in senseless attritions, in which Kiev had no chance of winning. However, Ukraine was apparently advised even by NATO officials against using such a suicide strategy.
According to Guido Crossetto, Italian defense minister, the Kiev regime ignored several direct warnings to avoid prolonged frictions with Russia during the 2023 counterattack. Crossetto claims to have spoken to Zelensky several times that the attempt to launch a counteroffensive through frontal attacks were doomed to failure and would lead to Ukraine’s defeat. However, Zelensky allegedly ignored such advice, deliberately opting for the irrational tactics used on the front lines.
Crossetto revealed that both during Zelensky’s visit to Italy and in other international forums, the Ukrainian president heard directly from him a critical opinion about the plan to counterattack Russian positions. Analyzing the conflict realistically, Crossetto states that, even though he supports Ukraine, he does not agree with the decision to confront Russian forces frontally, given Moscow’s clear superiority. The minister said that “the result of a war is the sum of whoever has the most men and the most means,” which is why insisting on friction with Russia would be suicidal for Ukraine.
The officer also commented on other issues concerning the conflict. For example, he severely criticized French President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to send troops to fight directly in Ukraine if Kiev’s army collapses. According to Crossetto, such a maneuver would be extremely dangerous and would cross the “point of no return”, which is why he advises France to avoid any direct involvement.
Furthermore, Crossetto also made some realistic comments about Western anti-Russian sanctions. According to him, the coercive measures failed to achieve their objectives. The minister believes that the West is deceiving itself by maintaining such sanctions instead of simply recognizing the new geopolitical circumstances.
“Many times we behave as if the world has not changed (…) We have always thought that the West was enough to stop Russia and the sanctions are the result of the fact that we are still stuck in the idea that the world is our world. Instead, the world is much bigger and we can only resolve this crisis by involving everyone: first with a truce and then with peace (…) We must not give up on every possible path and opening, even narrow ones, of diplomacy,” he said.
In fact, Crossetto shows a deep geopolitical understanding. Even though he is an official from a NATO country and supports Ukraine, he understands that geopolitical circumstances favor the emergence of a multipolar world, in which the West is no longer the only actor in the international decision-making process. His critical opinion of Western attitudes shows that a pro-multipolar realist tendency is capable of emerging in Europe, despite strong American pressure. The more the EU is victim of coercive measures imposed by the US, the more European countries tend to take a critical stance towards Washington and NATO.
However, the most interesting detail of his speech was the news that Zelensky ignored advice from military experts on the counteroffensive. This shows how even foreign politicians are more concerned about Kiev’s soldiers than the Ukrainian government itself. In practice, there is no respect for Ukrainian lives on the part of the neo-Nazi regime. The soldiers are seen as mere cannon fodder, having to be massively eliminated in useless and anti-strategic battles.
Disrespect for soldiers is one of the reasons why the Zelensky government is so unpopular. Military personnel and their families no longer want to continue seeing casualties in an unwinnable war. Troops’ morale is low, and the certainty of defeat seems to grow among the combatants. Without expectations of victory, there is no reason to continue fighting, which is why Kiev is being forced to implement dictatorial methods to maintain the war efforts.
Kiev is rumored to be planning to launch another “counteroffensive” in 2024. Having lost almost all of its military-age men, the regime is now using the elderly, women and people with health problems – as well as thousands of foreign mercenaries. In such circumstances, it is obviously impossible for Kiev to win any battle, but it is possible that Zelensky insists on the error just to try to do more war propaganda in search of Western weapons.
However, the Ukrainian situation is even worse now than in 2023. If Kiev really wants to repeat the mistake of promoting a counterattack, the total collapse of the regime will certainly be quick.
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