On terrorist activity in Afghanistan and Pakistan Part 1 - What's going on in Pakistan?

On terrorist activity in Afghanistan and Pakistan Part 1 - What's going on in Pakistan? The situation in Pakistan remains volatile (https://t.me/rybar/42355). The internal political crisis caused by the actions of the Anglo-Saxons to destabilize the region with the aim of subsequent pressure on China and India, the increased external debt, as well as the difficult humanitarian situation worsen the situation in the country. At the same time, the activity of extremists poses the greatest threat to the country. 🔻 What is the main problem? Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan militants resumed attacks and sabotage on government facilities and positions in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunwa and Balochistan after the end of the ceasefire. Since November, TTP extremists have carried out more than 60 attacks on roadblocks, positions, buildings and bases of Pakistani military and security forces. As a result of attacks, ambushes and terrorist attacks, more than 150 people were killed and more than 190 were injured. At the same time, the truce, concluded back in 2021, was not actually respected: sabotage, periodic ambushes and kidnappings by the TTP continued. During the year, more than 1,000 attacks by radicals were committed, with 367 deaths as a result. The Non-Aggression Pact was a kind of "breathing space" for the Pakistani Taliban, which they used to restore combat capability, replenish ranks and improve their tactical position. Now the Tehrik-e Taliban are firmly entrenched in the abolished "Tribal Zone" (part of the current Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province), and have also moved beyond the traditional area on the border with Afghanistan due to an alliance with the Baloch separatists. What are the Pakistani authorities doing? The threat posed by the TTP militants is now one of the main problems, the solution of which is a top priority for the government. In Pakistan, several local counter-terrorism operations against the TTP began in early January in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. As a result, more than a few dozen terrorists were killed, more than 50 members of the group and the citizens who assisted them were captured. At the beginning of this year, the number of attacks decreased significantly, and at first glance, the measures taken were effective. However, in the long run, local operations will have little or no effect on the fight against TTP. 🔻 Why? ▪️Firstly, for an effective fight against militants, a full-scale multi-level operation is needed, which with a high degree of probability will drag on for more than one month. This requires huge costs, which the country cannot currently afford. Now the administration of Shahbaz Sharif is actively looking for potential investors in the Pakistani economy, in addition to China, the dependence on which is already too high. The main option is Saudi Arabia, whose authorities are ready to allocate $11 billion. ▪️Secondly, external support. In the current conditions, Pakistan, despite the presence of significant military resources, is very limited in intelligence means. At the same time, the TTP militants bought weapons from NATO countries from the Afghan Taliban and entered into an alliance with the Balochs regarding joint actions in Pakistan. The working trip of the Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Army, General Asim Munir, to Saudi Arabia, the upcoming visit to Tehran to jointly fight the separatists from Balochistan, and the meeting (https://t.me/rybar/42186) with the commander of the US Central Command, General Michael Kurilla, testify to search for allies ready to assist in the fight against terrorism. ▪️Thirdly, conducting a limited operation only on Pakistani territory is essentially useless. TPP members actively take advantage of the lack of clear controlled borders with Afghanistan for free movement. Only a cross-border cleansing of the area, including on Afghan lands, will allow Pakistan to create a security zone from militants. However, this option is fraught with other negative consequences and conflict with the Taliban.

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