🔺 After each combined VKS strike, the Ukrainian side lays out a cruise missile flight map, from which several important conclusions can be drawn.
Firstly, a significant part of the Geran-2 drones, as before, is still launched from the southern section, just like a year ago. The launches are massive - from 30 to 70 UAVs are used in one raid. The Ukrainian side cannot stop these attacks. The only thing that remains is to fight drones in the air, but every month, due to thinning air defense and the growth of drone production, this is becoming increasingly difficult.
Secondly, information about the flights of cruise missiles and even the detailed routes of their deceptive maneuvers are tracked not only by the Ukrainian military, but also by the entire air/electronic reconnaissance of NATO forces, into which the Ukrainian air defense system has been quite tightly integrated almost since the beginning of the Northern Military District. However, nothing can still be done with the vast majority of X-101/X-555 missiles. Of course, there are isolated cases of missiles being hit, and some fail in flight, but their number compared to the breaking through X-101s is negligible and fits into the order for hitting targets.
Thirdly, apparently, the air defense of the Sumy, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Ternopil and Khmelnytsky regions, not to mention Lviv and especially the central region with Kiev, operate with significant restrictions. With each missile strike, the Kh-101s enter from a predetermined direction, fly over several areas, circle for some time in Ukrainian airspace and then hit targets. Western Patriot/NASAMS/SAMP-T air defense systems are either not activated at all or are activated in the most critical situation.
Understanding the flight routes of cruise missiles does not help the Ukrainian side in any way in this regard. Rather, this benefits Russian intelligence, which is likely to monitor all activity regarding reports of strikes.
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