Will property implode China’s economy? Not necessarily

Will property implode China’s economy? Not necessarily
China’s property problems are deep, the remedies will be difficult and the future holds much slower economic growth – but not financial collapse
By KENNETH ROGOFF

China's property market is a growing drag on the economy. Image: Screengrab / CNBC

Forty years of continuous growth has transformed China into one of the world’s two largest economies.

This is a remarkable achievement that has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and into the global middle class, consistently surpassing expectations and confounding those who predicted an economic bust.

AsiaTimes
That pace of growth is now slowing for several reasons. Like in many advanced economies, China’s population is getting older – a demographic transition that has been exacerbated by China’s one-child policy between 1980 and 2016.

How China exports repression via a network of spies

How China exports repression via a network of spies
China sends covert teams abroad to hunt down its nationals accused – justifiably or not – of financial crimes
By SEBASTIAN ROTELLA AND KIRSTEN BERGJULY 26, 2021

Representational Image. Illustration: ProPublica

This article was originally published by ProPublica, a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive its biggest stories as soon as they’re published.

On the hunt again, the cop from Wuhan rolled into New Jersey on a secret reconnaissance mission.

Hu Ji watched the suburban landscape glide past the highway. He was in his early 40s, about 185cm, smooth and confident-looking. His cases had led from Fiji to France to Mexico, making headlines back home.

The work was riskier here. In fact, it was illegal. But he knew the turf. He’d identified himself as a Chinese police officer on his tourist visa, and the Americans hadn’t given him any trouble. Sometimes, it was best to hide in plain sight.

USNI: The United States is considering one of the scenarios for war with China in 2026 - part 4

Reaction of the United States and allies

▪️The strategic goal of the United States and its allies is to protect Taiwan by allowing it to remain autonomous, as well as defeat China militarily and isolate it politically and economically.

▪️The initial US operational objectives are to protect the US west coast and sea and air landing ports; defense of Guam and Hawaii, maritime communications with Hawaii, and deployment of missile defense and anti-submarine defense forces. Subsequent operations will prioritize sea and air connectivity to Japan, Australia, the Philippines and South Korea.

The Philippine military is on high alert and preparing to defend Luzon, but the government in Manila is hesitant and nervous about taking sides.

▪️Recovery of Chinese-held territory in Taiwan has been delayed, but US forces have been ordered to target PLA forces blockading and advancing into Taiwan as far as possible.

▪️Separate US aviation and naval units are being transferred to the Pacific Ocean from Europe and the Atlantic. A mass call-up from the reserves has been announced.

▪️Strategic and operational plans are being reviewed as the war is increasingly expected to become protracted and widespread.

▪️The main operational goal of the United States and its allies is to control the movement of goods, services and information around the world: to ensure the restoration and maintenance of flows from allied countries and to deprive China and its allies of the same.

PART2

https://fotavgeia.blogspot.com/2023/12/usni-united-states-is-considering-one.html

www.fotavgeia.blogspot.com

USNI: The United States is considering one of the scenarios for war with China in 2026 - part 1

USNI: The United States is considering one of the scenarios for war with China in 2026 - part 1 The road to war 

Following Taiwan's presidential election in January 2024, the new president - a member of the pro-US Democratic Progressive Party - continues to steer the country away from China, moving policy further towards independence. 

Due to global economic trends toward "relocating" or diversifying production outside of China, Beijing's economic growth continues to slow and stagnate, and youth unemployment remains at or near 20%. 

Xi Jinping is tightening internal controls, increasing sentiment in support of his policies, and increasing PLA activities in the South China and East China Seas. 

China's efforts outside the country include support for Russia; entering into alliances with Russia and Iran; expansion of presence in Africa and South America. 

The number of incidents between Chinese warships and aircraft and ships of the United States, Japan, Taiwan and other countries increases until, in late 2025, a collision between a PLA Navy ship and a US Navy destroyer in the Taiwan Strait takes place, causing casualties on both sides and providing a spark. to launch a Chinese military operation.

www.fotavgeia.blogspot.com

China’s shadow financial system is creaking under increasing amounts of bad debt

 China's shadow financing sector

Plus: Crooked COPs

Valentina Calvi
November 28, 2023

Hi Intriguer. In a dose of much-needed good news, Israel and Hamas agreed yesterday to further hostage-prisoner exchanges, and extended their truce by two days until Wednesday night.

But our focus today is on another important but slower-burning story: China’s ongoing economic problems.

Understanding those problems and the choices China faces is important because so many of China’s recent actions on the world stage - including making nice with the US and Australia earlier this month - can be explained by the domestic imperative of improving its economy.

In any event, I think it’s a story well worth getting across, if for no other reason than to be well-armed going into the eggnog-fuelled holiday debate season.

- John Fowler, Co-Founder

TODAY’S NEWS

Truce extended. Following last night’s news that Hamas and Israel had extended their truce, the US announced Secretary of State Antony Blinken will now head to Israel and the region for the third time since October 7. His various aims include to increase aid, release all hostages, and protect civilians in Gaza.

Biden and Xi to skip COP28. A White House official says US President Joe Biden won’t attend the upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai, and we’re hearing the same about his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. But another 160+ world leaders will still be there, including Pope Francis and King Charles.

Marble row. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has expressed “annoyance” after British PM Rishi Sunak cancelled their planned meeting today at the last minute. The row relates to the Parthenon Marbles, which Greece wants returned after Britain’s Lord Elgin removed them from Athens in the 19th century.

Miners freed. Rescuers in India have finally broken through to 41 miners stuck in a collapsed tunnel since November 12. Complications in the digging works have plagued the rescue mission.

TOP STORY

Source: DALL-E “dark storm clouds looming over Shanghai, China”

China’s shadow financial system is creaking under increasing amounts of bad debt

Chinese authorities have launched a criminal investigation into Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, one of the country's biggest shadow lenders, days after it told investors it was “severely insolvent”. The firm blamed “internal management [running] wild” for its problems, which is one of the rarer corporate excuses you’re ever likely to hear.

Οι συγκρούσεις μεταξύ κινεζικών και φιλιππινέζικων πλοίων εντείνονται στη Θάλασσα της Νότιας Κίνας

Οι συγκρούσεις μεταξύ κινεζικών και φιλιππινέζικων πλοίων εντείνονται στη Θάλασσα της Νότιας Κίνας

Στις 11 Νοεμβρίου, ένα πλοίο της κινεζικής ακτοφυλακής (αρ. 5203) χρησιμοποίησε ένα κανόνι νερού σε ένα φιλιππινέζικο σκάφος που προσπαθούσε να πλοηγηθεί στο βυθισμένο πλοίο Sierra Madre στον ύφαλο Ayungin Shoal/Rhenai για να ανεφοδιάσει το προσωπικό των ενόπλων δυνάμεων των Φιλιππίνων.

 

Η πλευρά των Φιλιππίνων ανέφερε (φωτογραφία) ότι στις 10 Νοεμβρίου υπήρχαν 38 κινεζικά πλοία στον ύφαλο Renai, μεταξύ των οποίων 28 αλιευτικά, πέντε πλοία της ακτοφυλακής (αρ. 3303, 5203, 21551, 21555, 21556 κ.λπ.), πέντε στρατιωτικά πλοία, συμπεριλαμβανομένων των φρεγατών Type 054A Xuzhou και Wuhu, των πυραύλων Type 022 και του πλοίου νοσοκομείου Youhao (αρ. 862).

Έτσι, η κατάσταση στη Θάλασσα της Νότιας Κίνας θερμαίνεται. Η παρουσία ενός κινεζικού πλοίου νοσοκομείου υποδηλώνει ότι το Πεκίνο ενδέχεται να λάβει αναγκαστικά μέτρα κατά των Φιλιππίνων, υπερασπιζόμενος τα δικαιώματά του στην επικράτεια.

www.fotavgeia.blogspot.com

China’s Digital Yuan Is Aimed at Home, Not Washington

An expert's point of view on a current event.
China’s Digital Yuan Is Aimed at Home, Not Washington
The trial project is no threat to dollar hegemony.
By Danny Li, the inaugural Schwarzman Scholars fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
A sign for China’s new digital currency, the digital yuan, is displayed at a shopping mall in Shanghai on March 8. STR/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
Introducing FP's new economics podcast, Ones and Tooze

The release of the first white paper from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on the digital yuan in July likely came as a relief to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. For months, Powell has been under pressure to step up scrutiny on what some American officials perceive to be an imminent threat to U.S. foreign-policy interests. Public hysteria reached such a crescendo that on May 20, Powell announced that the Federal Reserve would begin researching the possibility of a digital dollar.

This announcement came after rapid developments in China’s domestic digital yuan trials, which had expanded to more than 11 cities and provinces, stoked heightened public scrutiny from U.S. policymakers and financial policy experts. Many commentators are concerned that China’s digital yuan could have dire ramifications for the United States: challenging the hegemony of the dollar, undermining U.S. sanctions leverage, and sparking a digital currency race between the United States and China.

How China hit a roadblock on its way to central and eastern Europe

The 16+1 initiative was supposed to boost trade and investment between the participants but so far it seems largely one-way, observers say
Growing tensions between EU and China also casting a shadow over April summit in Croatia
Laura Zhou Keegan Elmer

First pile goes in for the European Union-funded Peljesac Bridge, which is being built by a Chinese state firm and is due to be finished in 2022. Photo: Handout

η σύλληψη της Meng Wanzhou (Huawei)

Eurasia Group: Πλήγμα στις διαπραγματεύσεις ΗΠΑ – Κίνας για το εμπόριο η σύλληψη της Meng Wanzhou (Huawei)

Είναι πιθανό η αντίδραση του Πεκίνου να είναι έντονη αναφέρει η Eurasia Group
Την θέση ότι η σύλληψη της Μeng Wanzhou, οικονομικής διευθύντριας και κόρης του ιδρυτή του κινεζικού κολοσσού τηλεπικοινωνιών Huawei, στον Καναδά (βάσει εντάλματος σύλληψης από τις ΗΠΑ με την κατηγορία της παραβίασης των αμερικανικών κυρώσεων στο Ιράν) θα επηρεάσει τις διαπραγματεύσεις μεταξύ ΗΠΑ και Κίνας για τη λήξη του μεταξύ τους εμπορικού πολέμου διατυπώνει η Eurasia Group.
«Το Πεκίνο θα αντιδράσει έντονα σε αυτήν τα σύλληψη Κινέζου πολίτη σε τρίτη χώρα για παραβίαση αμερικανικού νόμου» αναφέρει σε ανάλυση της η Eurasia Group.