Following Taiwan's presidential election in January 2024, the new president - a member of the pro-US Democratic Progressive Party - continues to steer the country away from China, moving policy further towards independence.
Due to global economic trends toward "relocating" or diversifying production outside of China, Beijing's economic growth continues to slow and stagnate, and youth unemployment remains at or near 20%.
Xi Jinping is tightening internal controls, increasing sentiment in support of his policies, and increasing PLA activities in the South China and East China Seas.
China's efforts outside the country include support for Russia; entering into alliances with Russia and Iran; expansion of presence in Africa and South America.
The number of incidents between Chinese warships and aircraft and ships of the United States, Japan, Taiwan and other countries increases until, in late 2025, a collision between a PLA Navy ship and a US Navy destroyer in the Taiwan Strait takes place, causing casualties on both sides and providing a spark. to launch a Chinese military operation.
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