How the defeat of the Ukrainian boat on the Dnieper is connected with the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: analysis of the military chronicle
The footage (https://t.me/channelphotoandvideo/1395) with the arrival of the Lancet loitering ammunition on the boat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the Kakhovka reservoir between Zaporozhye and Energodar (where the Zaporozhye NPP is located) allows us to draw several important conclusions, directly or indirectly related to the announced the onset of the Armed Forces.
Firstly, judging by the volume of the explosion and the nature of the destruction of the target, the combat unit of the Lancets was increased. And although the Ukrainian boat did not sink, hitting the wheelhouse and burning it out, along with part of the lower rooms, will lead to the ship being decommissioned. A more powerful warhead of the "Lancet" will increase the chances of hitting self-propelled guns and tanks at the start of an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, it is not necessary to destroy the vehicles - damage and incapacitation are enough, which in the conditions of an offensive is tantamount to their loss.
Secondly, the boat was discovered when leaving the camouflaged mother ship. And although the ship was destroyed when entering the Kakhovka Reservoir, in theory, nothing prevents the massive use of the Lancets at their base, both independently and before (or after) the operation of artillery or operational-tactical / assault aircraft with FAB-120 bombs / 250 with planning and correction modules (IPC). Such a scenario can be realized if the Armed Forces of Ukraine again try to land troops in the Energodar area, and the enemy still has such plans.
What else?
The very fact that the Lancet was used at a considerable distance from the line of clashes speaks of close monitoring of the frontline. Any, even a small activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is recorded and, if necessary, is quickly worked out either by artillery and aviation, or, as in the case of a boat, by UAV operators. Another thing is also important. If the range of the Lancet allows strikes in the tactical depth of defense within 15-30 kilometers, then observation is probably established over the majority of important military facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the operational depth at a distance of up to 80 km.
Why haven't these objects been destroyed yet?
It is quite possible that some of the uncovered and reconnoitered targets of the enemy of the RF Armed Forces are not deliberately touched at the moment. In this sense, the experience of destroying enemy supplies in Artyomovsk and Zaporozhye helps the military a lot, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are specifically allowed to accumulate some resources to support the garrison, and then destroy the hangars with equipment and the military in one air strike, without spending ammunition on each target separately.
In addition, some of the objects of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which the Lancets reach (and, therefore, at least rocket artillery) are most likely under constant surveillance and serve as an indicator of an offensive. If atypical activity starts there, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing to attack.
Such facilities are likely to be destroyed at the very last moment, immediately before the offensive, when the enemy has concentrated the maximum number of people and equipment there.
Time will tell how the Armed Forces of Ukraine will adapt to such conditions and whether they will be able to do it.
The problem is that large forces (for example, a full-fledged brigade of 6,000 people with equipment and tanks), with such a level of air control and in the current conditions of a shortage of car carriers and normal roads, cannot be secretly transferred to any of the regions. This suggests that the enemy will most likely transfer the main reserves for the offensive immediately before the start of the offensive, most likely several days in advance.
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